Commentaries

2018/102, 6 December 2018

The next presidential election scheduled for May 2022 could see a historic first in the Philippines. A first that would reaffirm and reproduce the most powerful and debilitating continuity of Philippine democracy. 2022 could well see Sara Duterte succeed her father as president. While conventional practice at the local and provincial level, no Philippine president has been succeeded by a family member.  In 2010, Benigno Aquino III followed in his mother’s footsteps and became president, eighteen years after Corazon Aquino’s single six-year presidential term ended.

2018/101, 27 November 2018

Seen from the perspective of the Russian government, President Vladimir Putin’s 2½ day trip to Singapore last week can be considered a great success. There are three main reasons why.

First, and most importantly, Putin’s attendance at the East Asia Summit (EAS) allowed him to burnish his image as a major international statesman and leader of one of the world’s Great Powers which the West has failed to isolate since the Crimea crisis in 2014. The absence of US President Donald Trump gave Putin an even greater share of the limelight. This was Putin’s first time to attend the EAS. Between 2011 and 2017, Putin had sent Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov or Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to the EAS, while he preferred to join the APEC Summit. Instead, this year Putin travelled to Singapore for the EAS while Medvedev attended APEC in Papua New Guinea.

2018/100, 22 November 2018

On 11 November 2018, Grace Natalie, a non-Muslim Chinese who is also the Chairperson of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), declared that her party would never support shari’a-based bylaws and gospel-based bylaws [1]. The statement, made in Serpong, Banten, during the party’s fourth anniversary, has reignited the debate surrounding religion-based regulations.

2018/99, 15 November 2018

On 13 November 2018, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered the 44th Singapore Lecture entitled “Pursuing Open and Integrated Development for Shared Prosperity”. During his speech, Li expressed the hope that China and ASEAN could conclude negotiations on a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea within three years. Li also said that a CoC would contribute to peace and stability in the South China Sea and facilitate trade relations between ASEAN and China.

2018/98, 8 November 2018

With the appointment of Ma’ruf Amin as his running mate for the 2019 presidential election, Joko Widodo (Jokowi) is believed to have shielded himself from the prospect of a bitter campaign using religion. Instead the economy will become the key campaign issue. However, the recent demonstrations in several cities in Indonesia, named Aksi Bela Tauhid (Defending Tauhid [Oneness of God] Action), appear to be an effort to exploit Islam for political purposes and undermine Joko Widodo’s support base by attacking one of his main supporters, the NU (Nahdlatul Ulama).

2018 No. 96, 31 October 2018

In a seminar hosted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute on 29 October 2018, Mr Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno, one of Indonesia’s leading business people and vice-presidential candidate from the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), shared his insights on “Indonesia’s Future Economy”. He cited some critical challenges faced by the Indonesian economy that he believed were holding Indonesia back from achieving greater growth and prosperity. Mr Sandiaga’s observations were based on his experience as a successful businessman with a background in finance and investment. In addition, he also discussed what he thought would be key points of debate in the campaign for the 2019 presidential election.

2018/97, 31 October 2018

The first mega-regional trade deal, the tongue-twisting Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), has successfully passed the domestic legislative processes of 6 of the 11 negotiating parties. This means that the CPTPP will become a market reality by early 2019.

2018/95, 25 October 2018

China has stepped up its defence diplomacy in Southeast Asia by participating in simultaneous naval exercises with the ASEAN states.

From 20 to 29 October, China will hold combined exercises with Malaysia and Thailand in the Straits of Malacca. China and Malaysia have contributed two warships each, while Thailand has sent around 50 military personnel.

2018/94, 25 October 2018

Having built up a considerable level of familiarity and comfort among the participating defense establishments over the past decade, the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) and the ADMM-Plus are increasingly geared towards action-oriented measures to deal with complex security issues in the region, especially counter-terrorism and maritime security. As highlighted in the Joint Statement on Practical Confidence-Building Measures at the 5th ADMM-Plus on 20 October 2018 in Singapore, the defence collaborative efforts are focusing on conducting joint exercises and developing protocols on maritime interactions to reduce collision risks and manage untoward incidents at sea. This has become all the more imperative after the near collision of US and Chinese destroyers in the South China Sea in early October – a grim reminder of the increasingly congested and contested regional maritime domain. The objective is to navigate the growing geopolitical contestation in the region by identifying common ground for constructive and practical collaboration.