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Trends in Southeast Asia

The Trends in Southeast Asia series serves as in-depth analysis of contemporary geopolitical and socio-economic forces in the region. The series is written for policymakers, diplomats, scholars and students of the region with emphasis on empirical and observable trends, and less on theory-building or historical accounts of events.

The aim of Trends is to offer concrete accounts of the dynamism in the region as transnational processes impact local communities, national governments as well as bilateral and foreign relations. Subjects that are of interest to the series are national elections; economic patterns and growth; demographic changes and their social implications; migratory patterns; religious and ethnic trends; bilateral relations and geopolitics in the region in relation to the larger powers of Japan, China and the US. This series undergoes a peer-review process.

 

“Prosperity or Predicament? Decoding Certification Challenges in Malaysia’s Palm Oil Industry” by Serina Rahman and Lee Poh Onn

 


 

“How Thailand’s Move Forward Party’s Fandom Strategy Shaped the 2023 General Election” by Alexandra Colombier

 


 

“China’s Cultural Diplomacy in Indonesia: The Case of a Transnational Singing Contest” by Chang-Yau Hoon and Ardhitya Eduard Yeremia

 


 

“Enhancing ASEAN’s Role in Critical Mineral Supply Chains” by Sharon Seah and Mirza Sadaqat Huda

 


 

“China as a Rising Norm Entrepreneur: Examining GDI, GSI and GCI” by Manoj Kewalramani

 


 

“TIMOR-LESTE IN ASEAN: Is It Ready to Join?” by Joanne Lin, Sharon Seah, Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy and Melinda Martinus

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• After more than a decade of deliberations, ASEAN leaders agreed on 11 November 2022 in principle to admit Timor-Leste as the eleventh member of the regional organization and to grant Timor-Leste observer status to attend all ASEAN meetings. Timor-Leste has demonstrated positive developmental progress, and fact-finding missions across the three ASEAN Community pillars have returned generally optimistic results.

• However, an assessment of Timor-Leste’s ability to fulfil its commitments and obligations reveals that the country will need to close the gap with the ten existing members on matters such as the ratification and implementation of legally binding agreements and derivative work plans. Creating enforcement mechanisms and finding ways to implement commitments at the local level will be important.

• Timor-Leste has put in place institutional structures and implementing agencies for advancing cooperation with ASEAN. It is also moving towards harmonizing its laws with ASEAN instruments. However, its capacity remains in question due to a lack of substantive knowledge and technical expertise among government officials, as well as inadequate infrastructure, logistics and facilities for hosting ASEAN meetings.

• Strengthening human capital will be a top priority for Timor-Leste. This includes not only enhancing its personnel’s knowledge and technical expertise on ASEAN processes and procedures but also skills such as English language proficiency and negotiation. Coordinated capacity-building assistance from ASEAN and dialogue partners will be important. These efforts must also be met with economic diversification and growth of its nascent private sector.

• Apart from bridging gaps, ASEAN needs to grapple with its reservations that Timor-Leste’s economic limitations may slow down the realization of the ASEAN Economic Community. There are also concerns that Timor-Leste’s membership may entrench differences within the bloc, particularly with regard to geopolitical issues, and dilute the organization’s effectiveness or further complicate the consensus-based decision-making process.

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024/1, January 2024


 

The Debate on the Ba‘Alawi Lineage in Indonesia: Highlighting Weaknesses in the Genealogical Records by Ahmad Muhajir and Afra Alatas

 


 

Managing China-Singapore Relations Amid US-China Rivalry by Ma Bo

 


 

“The Evolution of Madani: How Is 2.0 Different from 1.0?” by Mohd Faizal Musa

 


 

“Post-Islamism Battles Political Islam in Malaysia” by Mohd Faizal Musa