Commentaries

“The Future of China’s Investment in Malaysia under Mahathir” by Tham Siew Yean

 

2018/62, 14 May 2018

The return of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad as Malaysia’s seventh Prime Minister on 10 May 2018 is construed by many to have a negative impact on China’s investment in Malaysia, as he had called for a greater scrutiny of these investments on the campaign trail. The critical questions now are: the extent to which his campaign pledge will be translated into actions; and will these mean a reversal of previous commitments and a halt to future investments from China.

 

 

“Will President Trump Come to Singapore Twice in 2018?” by Malcolm Cook

 

2018/61, 14 May 2018

If things go to plan, President Trump will be in Singapore on 12 June for the historic first US-North Korea Summit, reaffirming Singapore as East Asia’s premiere diplomatic hub. Yet, for President Trump to fulfil his 2018 ASEAN commitments – attending the 6th annual ASEAN-U.S. Summit and the East Asia Summit, he would have to agree to return to Singapore a mere five months later. In his first year in office, President Trump only made it to the 5th ASEAN-U.S. summit in Manila, leaving to go home before the delayed East Asia Summit.

 

 

“When Malaysian Youth Take a Stand… a Wave of Change Follows”, by Serina Rahman

 

2018/60, 14 May 2018

Malaysia’s 14th General Elections resulted in a windfall for the then-opposition People’s Justice Party (PKR); the end of 61 years of Barisan Nasional (BN) rule and unexpectedly large margins and wins in previously BN strongholds. Many were hoping for a Malay tsunami but what happened in the end was a Malaysian citizens’ tsunami (tsunami rakyat) that went far beyond expectations.

 

 

“Shock in Sarawak: The Dayak Tsunami” by Lee Poh Onn

 

2018/59, 12 May 2018

Travelling a few days in Kuching before the GE14 would not have prepared anyone for the “shocker” that was to happen in Sarawak. Barisan Nasional (BN) colours (and its coalition parties, notably Sarawak United Peoples’ Party or SUPP) were flying high in Bandar Kuching and Stampin areas, interspersed by a smaller showing of Democratic Action Party (DAP) flags. In Petra Jaya and, especially in Mas Gading, the blue hues of the BN were even stronger making up 75 percent of all banners. It was expected that the Pakatan Harapan (PH) components of DAP and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) would only win in their stronghold areas and that the role of Sarawak as a safe deposit state would be stronger than before.

 

 

“Re-instating Fuel Subsidies and repealing GST: Good politics but bad economics in Malaysia?” by Francis E. Hutchinson

 

2018/58 11 May 2018

Dr Mahathir Mohamad has begun his first day as Malaysia’s 7th Prime Minister with a bang, ordering in-depth probes of the Attorney-General, the Election Commission, and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission. These ‘stroke-of-the pen’ decrees will deliver quick wins to the new administration and generate momentum for reform.

 

 

“Whither Malaysia’s China Policy Under Prime Minister Mahathir?” by Ian Storey

 

2018/57 11 May 2018

As Malaysia’s largest trade and investment partner, China is hugely important to the country’s economic development. However, even though Mahathir was the architect of the country’s China-friendly policy in the early 1990s, he has been highly critical of his predecessor Najib Razak’s relations with Beijing, arguing that Malaysia has become too dependent on China.

 

 

“GE-14 in Malaysia: Fortress Johor has Fallen” by Francis E. Hutchinson

 

2018/56, 11 May 2018

Against the prevailing wisdom that Najib Razak’s administration would retain a slim majority in parliament and retain the unbeaten vote bank of Johor, in GE-14 BN obtained only 79 parliamentary seats and was swept from power in its southern bastion.

 

 

“Green Tsunami in East Coast of Peninsula Malaysia” by Norshahril Saat

 

2018/55, 10 May 2018

Malaysians have decided, and Pakatan Harapan (PH) will form the new government. This is the BN’s and UMNO’s first defeat since the country’s independence. Many would attribute PH’s victory to a Malay “tsunami”—the Malay voters’, particularly from those from the rural areas, change of allegiance from BN to PH. But this does not explain the PAS victories in Kelantan and Terengganu, both Malay dominant and rural states. In Kelantan, PAS increased its state legislative assembly seats (SLA), and completely wiped out PH. It took 37 out of the 45 state seats, with BN winning only 8. At the parliament level, PAS won 9 of the 14 seats.

 

 

“Consensus by Accommodation” by Hoang Thi Ha

 

2018/54, 8 May 2018

The leaked Zero Draft of the Chairman’s Statement of the 32nd ASEAN Summit in Singapore with member states’ attributed inputs on the South China Sea (SCS) has put ASEAN under scrutiny and criticism. ASEAN’s decision-making on this matter was disparaged as “consensus by deletion” because several strong formulations originally proposed by some member states were omitted or watered down in the final Chairman’s Statement.

 

 

“Strategic Imperatives for India and Australia to Conclude RCEP Negotiation in 2018” by Sanchita Basu Das

 

2018/53, 7 May 2018
There is immense expectation that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), under negotiation for the past five years, will be delivered by ASEAN in 2018.