Commentaries

“Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Rohingya Seeking Refuge in Bangladesh” by Su-Ann Oh

 

2017/54, 5 September 2017

The maelstrom of militant attacks, civilian reprisals and government security crackdowns in western Rakhine, Myanmar has brought about another surge of Rohingya arrivals, or Bengalis as the local population calls them, in Bangladesh. It has been reported that almost 90 000 have crossed into Bangladesh, with between 18 000 and 28 000 having been permitted entry; the rest were turned away. Some have returned to Bangladesh despite being refused entry, and/or are squatting in an area beyond the boundary guarded by Bangladesh’s Border Guard.

 

 

“The Downward Spiral of Violence in Rakhine State, Myanmar” by Su-Ann Oh

 

2017/53, 31 August 2017

Tensions in western Rakhine State, Myanmar have escalated to a potential tipping point. This past weekend, 30 police posts and an army base were attacked by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), resulting in the death of more than 100 people, mostly militants. This comes on the heels of a spate of militant-initiated killings and attacks that began in October 2016, against a backdrop pf decades of state and military suppression of separatism and communal violence.

 

 

“Realities of the Rakhine Issue in Myanmar” by Ye Htut

 

2017/52, 29 August 2017

On 23 August 2016 Myanmar’s de facto leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi announced the formation of an Advisory Commission on Rakhine State.  This Commission, established on 5 September 2016, is led by former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, and with three international and six Myanmar experts as members of the Commission. The aim of this “Annan Commission” as it is popularly called, was to find the best possible solutions to the prevailing problems in Rakhine.  The Commission would submit its findings and recommendations to the Government of Myanmar within twelve months of its establishment.

 

 

“Of Sand, Security and Cold Hard Cash” by Serina Rahman

 

2017/51, 24 August 2017 

In varying but little noticed reports a week ago, it was announced that Tamil Nadu and Karnataka states in India will soon begin importing sand from Malaysia and Cambodia. The reports cited the difficulty that these states have in ensuring enough sand for local construction and development projects. With limits on local mining permits and conservation policies being enforced to protect Indian water catchment areas, the price of local sand has soared to SGD$5.30 per 50kg bag. A global tender for sand resulted in Malaysian and Cambodian companies offering sand at SGD$3.17 per 50kg bag. This announcement is a curious one as Malaysia has had an export ban on sand for more than 10 years and Cambodia, as have several other Southeast Asian countries, has been embroiled in numerous sand smuggling allegations and denials. That the articles can celebrate the protection of Indian river ecosystems is ironic given the potential damage that will result in the source countries.

 

 

“Peace Process Problems in Muslim Mindanao” by Malcolm Cook

 

2017/50, 22 August 2017

The Marawi City siege is the latest symptom of the profound political alienation of Muslim Mindanao.

 

 

Both the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Duterte administration have publicly stated that the solution to this alienation includes the creation of a Bangsamoro regional autonomous government along the lines agreed upon by the preceding Aquino administration and the MILF. Last week, the Office of the President submitted to the House of Representatives and the Senate a revised draft Bangsamoro Basic Law.

 

 

“Vietnam and ASEAN Re-lift the Bar for South China Sea Statements” by Le Hong Hiep

 

2017/49, 8 August 2017

The 50th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) last week managed to issue a joint communiqué that contains stronger language on the South China Sea than the Chairman’s Statement issued at the 30th ASEAN Summit last April. By emphasizing, for example, “the importance of non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities, including land reclamation” in the South China Sea, the communiqué is virtually on par with the one issued last year at the 49th AMM.

 

 

“Will ASEAN and China Move Beyond the COC Framework?” by Jason Salim

 

2017/48, 8 August 2017

There was no shortage of good news for Asean coming out of the 50th Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that took place over the weekend in Manila, the Philippines, especially with regards to its relations with China. Not only did the Joint Communique include strong and firm language on land reclamation and militarisation activities in the South China Sea, but Asean and China also formally endorsed the framework for the Code of Conduct (COC) of the South China Sea. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi even took the opportunity to propose three steps to move the COC consultations forward. The most encouraging point among the three steps is Foreign Minister Wang’s pronouncement that the “leaders of China and ASEAN member states will officially announce the start of the next step to negotiate on the text of the COC at the China-ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in November” this year.

 

 

“ASEAN back on track on the South China Sea” by Hoang Thi Ha

 

2017/47, 8 August 2017

There was one thing that the 50th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM) did not disappoint: bringing ASEAN’s position on the South China Sea (SCS) back on track. In April, Manila set a low bar in this respect by failing to register the regional concerns on land reclamations and the importance of non-militarisation in the SCS during the 30th ASEAN Summit, purportedly due to Beijing’s intense pressure.

 

 

“Huang Jing Case a Test of Nation Building” by Benjamin Loh

 

2017/46, 7 August 2017

The revocation of the Singapore permanent residency of a prominent US Chinese academic has captured the media headlines both local and abroad. Branded an “agent of influence” of an unnamed foreign country by the Singapore Ministry of Home Affairs on 4 August, the revocation is a stark reminder of the challenges of nation building and national coherence.

 

 

“ASEAN Convenes High-Level Security Talks Amidst Regional Uncertainties” by Jason Salim and Tang Siew Mun

 

2017/45, 2 August 2017

The 50th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) and related meetings begin today (2nd August), and will culminate six days later in the Grand Commemorative Celebration of ASEAN’s 50th anniversary, coinciding with ASEAN’s founding day on 8 August. However, the meetings to mark this momentous milestone in ASEAN’s history are likely to be overshadowed by events, circumstances and personalities beyond its shores. The spotlight will be on the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting taking place at the sidelines of the AMM. The ARF brings together 17 countries besides the ASEAN-10, and puts countries like the US, China, India and Pakistan as well as North and South Korea on the same awkward table. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is expected to attend the ARF in his first official visit to Southeast Asia. The visit will be closely scrutinised in the wake of deteriorating Sino-US relations, with Tillerson expected to give a clearer indication of the US’ Asia policy, especially with regards to the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula.