Commentaries

2017/34, 30 May 2017 

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc is paying an official visit to the United States from 29 to 31 May 2017. The visit is an important opportunity for Vietnam to further strengthen its ties with the US and showcases Vietnam’s continued efforts to walk the line between the US and China.

 

2017/33, 29 May 2017

President Duterte’s 23 May declaration of martial law (and the suspension of the writ of habeus corpus) in Mindanao immediately sparked two questions; how long and how broad?

2017/32, 29 May 2017

The trade ministers from the 21 APEC member economies met in Hanoi, Vietnam, on 20-21 May 2017. The meeting was of special relevance as it was the first international forum for Mr. Robert Lighthizer to attend as a confirmed US Trade Representative (USTR) under the Trump administration.

2017/31, 29 May 2017

The second Union Peace Conference, popularly referred to as 21st Century Panglong, concluded on 29 May 2017 with no agreement on  non- secession and unified federal army issues .  In her opening speech, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi talked about “turning the dreams so long cherished by our people into reality”. But at the end of the conference, these dreams seem still elusive.

2017/30, 26 May 2017

On Wednesday 24 May the US Navy conducted its first “Freedom of Navigation Operation” (FONOP) in the South China Sea since President Trump took office in January. Although the FONOP has attracted much media attention, it is too early to tell whether it heralds a major ramping up of US pressure on Beijing in the South China Sea or, as is more likely, is merely a continuation of existing policy.

On 23 May, while on a state visit to Russia, President Duterte declared martial law in Mindanao. The trigger for this was the temporary capture of much of the downtown area of Marawi City by Abu Sayyaf Group and Maute Group terrorists in response to an attempt by Philippine army and police forces to arrest Isnilon Hapilon, an Abu Sayyaf Group leader. The president determined that the terrorist threat in Mindanao qualifies as a rebellion and provides the Constitutional basis for the declaration of martial law.

Catholics have been protesting in the Nghe An and Ha Tinh provinces of Central Vietnam since February 2017. The most recent incident in Nghe An saw several hundred Catholic protesters block the North-South national highway. The protest resulted in the damage of public property and up to 16 policemen injured. Tensions only increased when provincial authorities tried to quell the demonstrations.

Monday’s bombing of Bangkok’s King Mongkut Hospital occurred on the third anniversary of Thailand’s most recent coup d’etat, which saw a junta calling itself the the National Council for Peace and Order remove the caretaker Phuea Thai Party government. The NCPO continues to govern the country. While there has been no claim of responsibility for the bombing at time of writing, the latest incident adds to concerns that the violence that has plagued in the three Muslim-majority provinces of southern Thailand during the past dozen years may  now be escalating to Bangkok.

ASEAN and China took their first hesitant step towards the long-awaited Code of Conduct on the South China Sea (COC) yesterday by concluding the draft framework on the Code of Conduct. It has been a full 15 years since ASEAN and China agreed to “reaffirm that the adoption of a code of conduct in the South China Sea would further promote peace and stability in the region” through the adoption of the 2002  Declaration on the Code of Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Not much was expected of the DOC then, and likewise it would be unrealistic to expect any changes to the draft framework.