Commentaries

2018/12, 14 February 2018

On Sunday 11 February morning, the residents of the generally tolerant, multi-religious, province of Yogyakarta, experienced a rare bout of religious violence. During a mass at a Catholic church, an unknown young man walked in and stabbed the priest and several church-goers. The police shot the perpetrator, while all victims were rushed to the hospitals and could be saved.

2018/11, 13 February 2018

USA is the largest, most vibrant, and flexible economy in the world, however less so than a decade or two ago. The wildly fluctuating stock market in recent times is not a good omen.

A benign and positive outlook does not call for contingency planning, but dark clouds looming in the horizon do. Is there anything to worry about in this changing economic environment?

2018/10, 12 February 2018

Counter-terrorism was on top of the agenda of the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Retreat on 6 January 2018 in Singapore, which identified “terrorism as the most serious security threat to the region.” The Ministers also issued a joint statement to enhance counter-terrorism cooperation among ASEAN defense establishments and with external partners. This came barely four months after the issuance of a joint statement on the same topic at the Special ADMM in October 2017. With good reason, Singapore taking on the role of the ASEAN Chair has given heightened attention and priority to addressing this challenge during its Chairmanship.

2018/9, 12 February 2018

According to China’s Ministry of Defence, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has used state-of-the-art SU-35 fighter jets to conduct combat patrols over the South China Sea

Although the report did not provide details of the exact dates, location or size of the patrols, it is the first time that China has publicly acknowledged the operational use of the PLAAF’s SU-35s. In late 2015, Beijing signed a US$2 billion contract with Moscow to purchase 24 SU-35s, Russia’s most advanced air superiority fighter. Fourteen were delivered during 2016-17 and the remaining 10 will be transferred in 2018. China’s acquisition of SU-35s highlights how the strengthening of the Sino-Russian strategic alignment since 2014 has enabled Beijing to further widen the gap in combat capabilities between China’s armed forces and its Southeast Asian counterparts.

Concluding the negotiations of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement is a significant deliverable for ASEAN in 2018. If it is successful, ASEAN will be feted for its leadership to bring together big economies like China, India, Japan and South Korea under a single comprehensive trade deal. This will reinforce its centrality and will showcase its tenacity to deliver on trade cooperation when the winds are blowing the other way in the West.

2018/7, 25 January 2018

On 17 January, EU Parliament proposed a ban of the use of unsustainable sources of palm oil in biofuels as of 2021. According to European parliamentarians, palm oil from such sources has driven deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Indonesia and Malaysia account for 80 percent of the EU’s imports. If the ban is implemented, Indonesia will experience a shortfall of about 4.37 million tons (17 percent of its palm oil exports) while Malaysia will suffer a shortfall of about 2.09 million tons (13 percent of its palm oil exports). Reportedly, Malaysia could lose as much as RM10 billion in export revenue, as the  EU is the country’s second-largest export market.

2018/6, 24 January 2018

The repatriation of Rohingya refugees (referred to as Bengali in Myanmar) from Bangladesh to Myanmar was slated to begin on 23 January but has been postponed by the Bangladesh government amid concerns about the repatriation procedures and the unwillingness of the refugees to return. Beyond these, there are several issues that still need to be addressed by the Myanmar government before a safe and voluntary return can occur.

2018/5, 22 January 2018

On Wednesday 17 January, the US Navy conducted its first freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) of 2018 in the South China Sea—and its fifth under President Trump—when the destroyer USS Hopper sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal, a small atoll 120 miles west of the Philippines’ main island of Luzon.

2018/4, 19 January 2018

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s third cabinet reshuffle was finally announced on Wednesday 17 January 2018.

Long-awaited and a subject of speculation since the first half of last year, the reshuffle is much smaller in scale than many had expected, with only four changes in the president’s team. However, while the changes seem minimal, the choice of new personnel is significant and highly strategic.