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Commentaries

“Constructing the Indo-Pacific” by Malcolm Cook

 

2018/42, 17 April 2018

The most effective regional frameworks are virtuous cycles. They are built on key state-to-state relations among members and reinforce and strengthen these same relations. The Franco-German relationship is seen as the European Union’s foundation and driving force. The post-war major power partnership between the US and Japan is the foundation for the Asia-Pacific.  Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are frequently referred to as the “core states” of ASEAN.

 

 

“China’s Investment in Malaysian Manufacturing in 2017” by Tham Siew Yean

 

2018/41, 13 April 2018

Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA) recently reported a total of RM197.1 billion of approved investments in the manufacturing, services and primary sectors for the year 2017. Foreign direct investments (FDI) contributed RM54.7 billion, or 27.8% of the total. China continued to be the top FDI source for the second year in a row. However, the value of China’s investments has dropped by 18.7% from RM4.8 billion in 2016 to RM3.9 billion in 2017. China’s investments have also diversified to include non-metallic mineral products, transport equipment, rubber products and E&E products.

 

 

“Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s Visit to China (8 to 12 April 2018)” by Lye Liang Fook

 

2018/40, 11 April 2018

Singapore Prime Minister (PM) Lee Hsien Loong’s working visit to Beijing, Hainan and Shanghai underscores the importance Singapore attaches to maintaining regular exchanges with China at the highest level. Coming just after China’s Party Congress and its “Two Sessions” in October 2017 and March 2018 respectively, PM Lee met with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang, Vice President Wang Qishan and Shanghai’s Party Secretary Li Qiang. In September 2017, PM Lee had made an official visit to China where he met with Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang and Wang Qishan.

 

 

“Trump’s Foreign Policy – Uncertainty Abounds” by Daljit Singh

 

2018/39, 10 April 2018

Donald Trump’s election as President in November 2016 caused great consternation among allies and friends of the US. His ‘’America First’’ slogan portended retreat from America’s alliances, trade protectionism and pull back from multilateral trade agreements.

 

 

“Malaysia’s GE14 Promises Suspenseful Weeks Ahead” by Lee Hwok-Aun

 

2018/38, 9 April 2018

Prime Minister Najib Razak dissolved parliament on Saturday, 7 April, paving the way for Malaysia’s 14th general elections. State governments will follow suit in the days ahead, except for Sarawak which held its elections in 2016. The Election Commission will then announce candidate nomination and polling dates. Recent history suggests Malaysians will cast their votes on the either the 28-29 April or 5-6 May weekends.

 

 

“What drives Vietnam’s public security forces restructuring?” by Le Hong Hiep

 

2018/37, 6 April 2018

Vietnam’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS) announced on 2 April 2018 that the Politburo of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) had approved a blueprint for the restructuring of the Ministry. The blueprint, prepared by the MPS itself, proposes to abolish the Ministry’s six existing general departments and reduced the number of departments under them from 126 to 60. The massive reform is estimated to affect 300 to 400 high ranking officials of the ministry. There will also be impact on officers of lower ranks, some of whom might be transferred away from the ministry. Similar structural reforms will also apply to provincial departments of public security and their subordinate units.

 

 

“North Sumatra’s 2018 gubernatorial election, the key battle-ground which reflects national politics” by Deasy Simandjuntak

 

2018/36, 6 April 2018

On 27 June 2018, Indonesian voters in 171 regions will flock to their local ballots to vote for governors, district-heads and mayors. With 152 million voters this year, it will be one of the largest one-day elections in the world.

Regions under contest include Indonesia’s most populous provinces: West Java (31.7 million voters), Central Java (27.3 million), East Java (30.4 million) and North Sumatra (9.2 million). Together they make up more than half of this year’s total number of voters. Because of the large electorate size, local dynamics can be a useful barometer to gauge the strength of political parties and the popularity of President Jokowi. This is especially important coming up to Indonesia’s presidential election in 2019.

 

 

“A “new generation” leader for Myanmar’s National League for Democracy?” by Ye Htut

 

2018/35, 5 April 2018

Following the surprise resignation of President Htin Kyaw on 21 March 2018, Myanmar’s Parliament elected lower-house speaker Mr Win Myint as President, and swore him in on 30 March. Under Myanmar’s current political set-up, it is relevant to ponder what the role of the new president is.

According to the 2008 constitution, the President is both head of state and head of government. With the passing of the State Counsellor bill (set into motion by President Htin Kyaw) since April 2016, however, Ms Aung San Suu Kyi has become the de facto leader of Myanmar, with President Htin Kyaw playing a largely ceremonial role.

 

 

“Caught between a crocodile and a snake, some Rohingya refugees choose the deep blue sea” by Su-Ann Oh

 

2018/34, 4 April 2018

In the refugee camps in Bangladesh, there is a common saying that the choice between living in Myanmar or fleeing to refugee camps in Bangladesh is akin to that between a crocodile and a snake. Almost 900 000 Rohingya, or Bengali as they are referred to in Myanmar, have sought refuge in Bangladesh. The majority fled after insurgent attacks on police stations and border guards, and subsequent military operations in Rakhine State, Myanmar at the end of August last year. The conditions in Bangladesh are squalid and bleak, with 90 per cent of the refugees dependent on food assistance and a considerable number living in makeshift shelters. To make matters worse, the monsoon season consisting of heavy rain and cyclones has begun in Bangladesh. There is a real danger of landslides, floods and waterborne diseases.

 

 

“US Conducts 6th South China Sea FONOP under Trump” by Ian Storey

 

2018/33, 27 March 2018

On 23 March 2018, the US Navy destroyer USS Mustin conducted a “freedom of navigation operation” (FONOP) in the South China Sea by sailing within 12 nautical miles of Chinese-controlled Mischief Reef in the contested Spratly Islands. Over the past few years, China has constructed extensive military facilities on Mischief Reef.