Commentaries

2019/62, 22 July 2019

According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, a Chinese coast guard vessel, the Haijing 35111, has since 16 June been patrolling an area about 190 nautical miles off the coast of southeastern Vietnam that is adjacent to the oil and gas Block 06-01, that is situated to the northwest of Vanguard Bank on Vietnam’s continental shelf. The block is key to the Nam Con Son project which provides up to 10 percent of Vietnam’s total energy needs. In May 2019, Russian Rosneft contracted the Hakuryu-5, a rig owned by Japan Drilling Company, to drill a new production well in 06-01 at a second gas field called Lan Do. There were two previous incidents in July 2017 and March 2018 where Chinese threats forced Vietnam to stop drilling in nearby oil and gas blocks by Spain’s Repsol. But in the most recent case, Rosneft went ahead with the drilling at Lan Do and at another field, Phong Lan Dai, in Block 06-01. Haijing 35111 was reported to have been operating in a threatening and intimidating manner near Vietnamese vessel that were servicing the Japanese rig.

 

2019/61, 18 July 2019

For the last three decades, successive Philippine governments have considered but not started constructing a Mindanao Railway System to link the urban centres of the country’s poorest and most troubled major island. Under President Duterte, the first president from Mindanao, this massive but commercially doubtful 1500km project has gained much greater political backing and urgency. It has become a test for both China and the Philippines of their new-found “friendship” as the Duterte administration expects China to provide the majority of financing for this project and 80-85% of its first $83 billion peso stage covering about 105 kilometres.

 

2019/60, 12 July 2019

What matters to international policy analysts is often largely immaterial to voters. Much has been written by analysts criticizing the Duterte administration’s deference to China, particularly in the West Philippine Sea. Yet, the latest Social Weather Stations’ quarterly survey provides a humbling reality check.

 

2019/59, 10 July 2019

Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra made headlines in Thailand with a tweet last Sunday announcing his intention to  celebrate his upcoming seventieth birthday on 26 July quietly with his family.  No friends, and no political supporters, will be invited to mark the occasion with him in Dubai, his home in exile since 2008.  After all, Dubai is rather hot, Thaksin reasoned; it would be inconvenient to do any outdoor partying when the temperature was almost 50 degrees centigrade.

 

2019/58, 9 July 2019

On 2 July, China’s Ministry of Transport (MOT) raised the threat alert for Chinese-flagged ships transiting the Straits of Malacca (SOM) to Security Level 3, the highest security setting under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS).  Security Level 3 applies when there is credible information that a security incident is probable or imminent and requires vessels to strengthen security measures.

 

2019/57, 8 July 2019

Reports that China conducted one or more ballistic missile tests in the South China Sea in early July highlights the growing strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing in maritime Southeast Asia. The tests run counter to China’s narrative that the situation in the South China Sea is stable and calm.

 

2019/56, 8 July 2019

On 9 June, a much larger, steel-hulled Chinese fishing vessel hit a Filipino one near Recto Bank in the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Recto Bank is roughly 100 nautical miles from Palawan and 600 nautical miles from Hainan Island. The Chinese vessel abandoned the 22 Filipino fishermen to their fate in the dark night. A nearby Vietnamese fishing vessel, in accordance with customary maritime law, rescued the 22.

 

2019/55, 28 June 2019

The original title of ASEAN’s official response on the Indo-Pacific was reportedly the “ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook”, which was revised at the eleventh hour to the “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific” (AOIP). This modification appears ordinary at first glance, but a closer look at the wording reveals the underlying ambivalence that ASEAN and some of its member states might still have with embracing the concept.  

 

2019/54, 25 June 2019

In the weeks leading up to the recently concluded 34th ASEAN Summit under Thailand’s chairmanship, the question of ASEAN credibly engaging Myanmar on the Rohingya issue was among key topics for discussion in Bangkok.