Seminar: The United States and China in Southeast Asia: Competitive Coexistence?

 

REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME

 

About the Seminar

Southeast Asia has become an increasing geographic epicenter of the strategic competition and perceived power shift between the region’s two major powers, the United States and China. In this session, Professor David Shambaugh will discuss the dynamics of the competition, as well as the assets and liabilities that each power possesses in the region. Will ASEAN countries be able to continue to successfully “balance”, “engage”, and “hedge” both America and China? Where are the tension points, and what are the likely consequences of an inability to maintain a “competitive coexistence”?

About the Speaker

David Shambaugh is an internationally recognized authority and author on contemporary China and the international relations of Asia. He has visited or lived in China every year since 1979 and is fluent in Chinese. He is currently Distinguished Visiting Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, where he is on sabbatical from his position as Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science and International Affairs at The George Washington University. He was formerly the Editor of The China Quarterly and Reader in Chinese Politics at the University of London School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). As an author, he has published more than 300 articles and 30 books – most recently China’s Future and The China Reader: Rising Power (both 2016).

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 16 May 2017.

 

Seminar: AMANAH: A Game-Changer in Malay-Muslim Politics

 

MALAYSIA STUDIES PROGRAMME

About the Seminar

Will the newly formed opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH) be able to wrestle the Federal government from the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN)? Considering Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) is now no longer in the opposition pact, will Parti Amanah Negara (AMANAH) – an offshoot of PAS – be able to fill the vacuum left by the first party to win the hearts and minds of the Malay-Muslim electorate? This is an important question to analyse, given that Islam is a key element in Malaysian politics. The success of any political pact in Malaysia hinges on its ability to articulate political ideas and public policies without upsetting the Malay-Muslim psyche.

AMANAH therefore has an important role to play in, at least, two aspects. First, AMANAH plays a role in challenging the narrative of political Islam as envisaged by the current leadership of PAS that calls for Malay-Muslim dominance in the political sphere. By offering an alternative narrative of political Islam grounded on the maqasid shariah (the higher objectives of the Shariah) and the notion of rahmatan lil ‘alamin (mercy to all), AMANAH is able to convince the Malay-Muslim electorate that Islam remains a significant aspect of Pakatan Harapan’s political agenda. Secondly, AMANAH has a role in promoting a version of political Islam that is capable of maintaining a just and democratic Malaysia.

Despite the challenges – AMANAH is optimistic that it has a bright future in Malaysian politics. There is a steady stream of new membership applications nationwide, the majority of which – surprisingly – come from states considered as PAS strongholds such as Kelantan, Kedah and Selangor. Thus far, AMANAH has managed to establish party branches in 160 out of 222 parliamentary constituencies across Malaysia.

About the Speaker

Salahuddin Ayub was a former member of the federal parliament for two consecutive terms (2004-2013). Until 2015, he was a member of Parti Islam
Se-Malaysia (PAS). Over more than 30 years, he was elected to various positions in the party, such as the Youth Wing Head and, prior to his departure, Party
Vice-president.

In 2015, together with other former leaders of Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), Salahuddin founded Parti Amanah Negara (AMANAH), and he is currently the Party’s Deputy President.

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 8 May 2017.

 

Seminar: Whither the Reformists’ Agenda: Is the Federation Breaking Up?

 

MALAYSIA STUDIES PROGRAMME

About the Seminar

Since the Reformasi Movement of 1998, political developments in Malaysia have taken several striking twists and turns. The 1999, 2004 and 2008 general elections witnessed major swings in voting patterns; in 1999, Malay voters abandoned UMNO and voted for PAS in large numbers; in 2004, BN-UMNO achieved an all-time high in voter support across all ethnic groups; and in 2008, the Opposition garnered a majority of the urban and Chinese votes. Then came the 2013 “urban + Chinese tsunami” where the Najib-led BN experienced its worst-ever electoral performance where it even lost the popular vote.

After the 2013 “Urban + Chinese Tsunami”, there has been a rise in ethnic antagonism and religious radicalism, culminating in Hadi Awang’s attempt to amend the Penal code to make it more “Shariah compliant”. Hadi’s aggressive move to advance the Islamic State agenda split not only his own party but also Pakatan Rakyat, the opposition coalition. A PAS breakaway faction formed Amanah which then went on to establish the new opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan together with PKR and DAP, and which was later joined by the new party Pribumi, formed by an UMNO splinter group led by former prime minister Mahathir Mohamed and Muhyiddin Yassin. On the other side, political expediency led to a growing cooperation between UMNO and PAS, ostentatiously in the name of serving Islam.

What are the implications of the new party political alliance of Pakatan Harapan (DAP-PKR-AMANAH-PRIBUMI), and its convenient PAS ally in Selangor State Government, and the UMNO-PAS cooperation in the name of Islam? Are the recent developments merely political expediency or do they signify a fundamental shift in Malaysian politics. Is the two-party system a reality or myth? Will political reforms and the reform agenda wither away? More generally, how will the highly volatile contestation affect the “secular” character of Malaysia’s polity. Is the Federation in danger of breaking up?

About the Speaker

Gan Ping Sieu is the co-president of CENBET, a civil society NGO promoting moderation and good governance. A legal practitioner by profession, he is a senior partner of M/S GAN & ZUL, Advocates and Solicitors.  Mr Gan has been an active politician, both in local and national level. A current Parliamentary Division chairman of the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) in Johor, he held the Vice President post of MCA from 2010 to 2013.

Mr Gan served as a Senator and Deputy Minister in the Ministry of Youth and Sports from June 2010 to May 2013. His other public sector services include serving as a municipal councilor, member of statutory board and an elected State Assemblyman. He is currently a member of the National Consultative Committee on Political Financing chaired by Datuk Minister Paul Low of the Prime Minister Department. A known critic of the ruling  BN government policies, Mr Gan has been vocal in his political views, not least during his tenure as a State Assemblyman and a Deputy Minister of the ruling BN Government.

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 24 April 2017.

 

Seminar: Internationalising SMEs: Case Studies from Indonesia and Malaysia

 

REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME

 

About the Seminar

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) aims to create an integrated market and production space for its ten member states. This expanded market, in principle, should create opportunities for the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the region to grow within a regional context as a first step towards a global market. The focus on SMEs is not without reason: SMEs constitute between 89-99 % of the firms in ASEAN Member States (AMSs), creating between 52-97% of employment and contributing between 23-58% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 10-30% of exports in the region. However, studies have shown that there is generally low awareness of the AEC and the opportunities accorded by the AEC initiatives. The literature tends to focus on the challenges faced by the SMEs in general, especially in internationalizing their operations. Research questions that are frequently asked pertain to the factors that determine their exports or internationalization strategies or the drivers of their internationalization and/or the challenges faced by SMEs in their internationalization efforts. In contrast, there is less focus on how SMEs overcome exisiting challenges to enter markets and extend their reach, especially in ASEAN. The seminar aims to understand how SMEs in Indonesia and Malaysia manage to penetrate the ASEAN and global market, using a case studies approach. In particular, what are the policies and institutions (both in their respective countries and in ASEAN) that are most helpful in their internationalization strategies for ASEAN and beyond ASEAN.

About the Speakers

Tulus T.H. Tambunan is a lecturer in the faculty of economics, Trisakti University in Jakarta, Indonesia. Currently he is also the director and the main researcher of the Center for Industry, Small and Medium Enterprises, and Business Competition Studies in the same university. He has done many studies on various issues related to micro, small and medium enterprises, economic crises, regional trade, and inclusive development. Some of his publications include ASEAN Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises toward AEC 2015 (Saarbrȕcken: Lambert Academic Publishing (LAP), 2015), and SME in Asian Developing Countries (London: Palgrave Macmillan Publisher, 2009).

Tham Siew Yean is a Senior Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. She was formerly Director and Professor at Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. Her research interests and publications are in foreign direct investment, international trade, trade policies, and industrial development in Malaysia and ASEAN. Her recent publication includes among others, “Moving Up the Value Chain in ICT: ASEAN Trade with China”, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 46, No. 4: 680-699; 2016 (with Andrew Jia Yi Kam and Nor Izzatina Aziz).

Registation

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 28 April 2017.

 

Seminar: A Federal Philippines: President Duterte’s Greatest Ambition

 

REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME

 

About the Seminar

Since Independence, a debate about the very nature of the Philippine state has persisted between those in favour of the current unitary system of government and those in favour of a federal alternative. The very diversity of the Philippines – the world’s second largest archipelago with over 7,600 islands and 180 active languages – has been used by both sides to bolster their arguments. President Duterte, a committed federalist, is seeking to introduce a federal political system before or by the end of his single six-year term in 2022.

Professor Muego will analyse the manifold political and constitutional challenges facing the president’s top priority. The current Metro Manila-centred unitary system has many powerful vested interests supporting it, including hundreds of local political dynasties. If President Duterte succeeds, this will be the most important political change in the Philippines since Independence.

About the Speaker

Benjamin N Muego is a former tenured Professor of Political Science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. Currently, he is a Professorial Lecturer in International Law, Comparative Foreign Policy, Comparative Government and International Organization in the School of Diplomacy and Governance of De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde in Manila. Professor Muego was a Visiting Fellow at ISEAS four decades ago and is a repeat contributor to the Institute’s annual Southeast Asian Affairs series.

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 27 April 2017.

 

Seminar: Towards “Pork Barrel” Legislative Politics in Myanmar?

 

MYANMAR STUDIES PROGRAMME

 

About the Seminar

Myanmar’s Constituency Development Funds (CDF) were introduced in 2014 by the first post-junta Union legislature. Popular in developing countries and emerging democracies alike, CDFs are funding arrangements that channel public money from the government directly to electoral constituencies for small infrastructure and local development projects. Members of parliament commonly hold sway over the way these funds are allocated annually. CDF schemes have long remained controversial among communities of donors, anti-corruption agencies and civil society watchdogs for their potential for corruptive business and political clientelism. Drawing on recent field research, this lecture will investigate initial patterns of “pork barrel” politics in Myanmar under both the late USDP government (2014-16) and early NLD administration (since 2016). How have elected legislators used their annual CDFs? How has “pork” been allocated and distributed? Has the process been monitored and evaluated? What impact have these “pork barreling” programs had on local economic development? Has there been any indication of partisan use of these funds? The long-term objective of this study is to better understand how the politics of distribution and legislative pork barreling are emerging in post-junta Myanmar, and whether the negative impacts observed in other sociopolitical contexts and post-authoritarian societies, such as corruption, vote-buying, and political clientelism, can also impede, or foster, citizen participation and government accountability in the country.

About the Speaker

Renaud Egreteau (PhD Paris, 2006) is Visiting Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. He previously taught comparative politics at Sciences Po Paris, France and the University of Hong Kong, and was a recipient of a 2015-2016 fellowship at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC. He recently authored Caretaking Democratization: The Military and Political Change in Myanmar (Oxford University Press and Hurst, 2016) and co-edited Metamorphosis: Studies in Social and Political Change in Myanmar [with Francois Robinne] (Singapore: NUS Press, 2015).

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 26 April 2017.

 

Seminar: De-Globalisation Sentiments and Risks for ASEAN Economies

 

ASEAN STUDIES CENTRE AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME

About the Seminar

The risk of de-globalisation is on the rise due to a combination of economic and political risks. Global trade has slowed down since the 2008-09 crisis as a result of the slowing down of trade liberalization and rising protectionism. New barriers in form of bailouts, trade defence measures, import tariff increases and localisation requirements have increased sharply. The US, India, Indonesia are some of the more prominent examples of countries turning to trade barriers to protect their national economies. It is unsurprising that the politicization of trade has come to the forefront in advanced economies as voters make their frustrations known through the ballot boxes, expressing their angst against stagnant wages and rising income inequality, which were attributed to unfair foreign competition. All this is unlikely to bode well for ASEAN economies. While the region has limited direct exposure to the US, its indirect linkage through China is a matter of concern. The region is cautious about a future economic downturn or a similar political backlash in their own economies.

The Seminar will discuss the implication of global developments on ASEAN economies from research, policy-making and private sector perspectives.

Programme

8:30 – 9:00 Registration
9:00 – 10:00 Session I: Understanding De-globalisation and Its Impact on ASEAN Economies
Mr Marcus Bartley Johns, Senior Trade Specialist, Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice World Bank, Singapore
Dr Deborah Elms,  Founder and Executive Director, Asian Trade Centre, Singapore
10:00 – 10:30 Q&A
10:30 – 10:45 Coffee
10:45 – 11:45 Session II: De-globalisation Sentiments: Views from the Public and Private Sectors
Ms Mary Elizabeth Chelliah, Principle Trade Specialist, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore
Ms Priyanka Kishore, Lead Asia Economist, Oxford Economics, Singapore
11:45 – 12:15 Q&A


Click here for more details about the programme and speakers.

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to ascevents@iseas.edu.sg by 27 April 2017.

 

Seminar: The Economic Impacts of the Singapore – Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail: An Analysis Based on a Geographical Simulation Model

 

REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME

 

About the Seminar

This seminar examines the potential economic impacts of the Singapore – Kuala Lumpur (KL) High Speed Railway (HSR). These were estimated by researchers from the Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO) using the IDE-GSM –  a numerical simulation model based on spatial economics. The simulations covered three different scenarios, i.e., a) Singapore-KL non-stop express service, b) Johor-KL local service, c) Singapore-Johor shuttle service.  Simulations were also carried out to compare the economic impacts of the project on Singapore and the thirteen states of Malaysia.

Programme

02:45 – 03:00 pm     Registration

03:00 – 03:10 pm     Opening Remarks (Kazunobu Hayakawa, Visiting Fellow, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)

03:10 – 03:40 pm     Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) (Ikumo Isono, Deputy Director, IDE-JETRO)

03:40 – 04:10 pm     Economic Impacts of the Singapore-KL HSR (Satoru Kumagai, Director, IDE-JETRO)

04:10 – 04:30 pm     Q&A

 

The Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM)

Ikumo Isono, IDE-JETRO

Abstract

The Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), together with the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), has been developing the IDE-GSM since 2007. The main purpose of the model is to predict the economic impact of physical or institutional integration on regions at the sub-national level. It can also be used to predict the types of policy measures that are favorable for stable and balanced economic development of the regions by identifying potential bottlenecks and thus extracting the full merits of economic integration. In fact, IDE-GSM simulation analyses have been used in many policy research projects and conveyed to policy makers. In East Asia, lack of quality data remains a challenge to conducting quantitative analyses. However, waiting for precise data to become available is unfeasible because of the urgent need for policy recommendations on development strategies. Despite the challenges, the IDE-GSM has been used along with night-time satellite image to estimate and construct regional economic data and conduct simulations.

Ikumo Isono is a research fellow, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO). He was educated in Japan and received a bachelor degree of economics in Saitama University in 1998. He had a master degree of economics in the University of Tokyo in 2000. He joined the Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO) in 2005 as a research fellow. He was a research fellow in the Bangkok Research Center, JETRO from 2009 to 2011 and dispatched to the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) from 2011 to 2013. His expertise is in spatial economics and connectivity aspects of economic integration in ASEAN and East Asia, including infrastructure development, economic corridors, logistics, trade and transport facilitation, free trade agreement (FTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Economic Impacts of the Singapore-KL HSR: Simulation Results from the IDE-GSM

Satoru Kumagai, IDE-JETRO

Abstract

In this session, we will introduce the economic impacts of Singapore-KL HSR estimated using the IDE-GSM, a numerical simulation model based on spatial economics. We conducted the simulation along three different scenarios, i.e., a) Singapore-KL non-stop express service, b) Johor-KL local service, c) Singapore-Johor shuttle service, and compared the economic impacts for Singapore and 13 states in Malaysia. The economic impacts of the project under these three scenarios differ in terms of size and distribution.  There are also differences in terms of industrial sectors that gain from the HSR development. The simulations further revealed that the economic impacts are influenced by the quality of supporting infrastructure, such as a good transport between HSR stations and the city centre, and a smooth border control.

Satoru Kumagai is a director, Economic Geography Studies Group, Inter-disciplinary Studies Centre, Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), JETRO. Since 1996, Mr Kumagai has joined IDE as a researcher in charge of economic integration in East Asia and Malaysia’s economic affairs. He has been working for the development of the Geographical Simulation Model (GSM), an economic model based on spatial economics since 2007 and the results of the simulation are widely used in various conferences held by ERIA, ADB as well as IDE-JETRO. He was a visiting research fellow at Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) during 2013-2015. He  received his Master in Media and Governance degree from Keio University in 1996 and his MSc in Global Market Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science in 2004.

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 25 April 2017.

 

Seminar: Black Swans in Malaysian Politics

 

MALAYSIA STUDIES PROGRAMME

Black Swans in Malaysian Politics

About the Seminar

Will Prime Minister Najib Razak win the upcoming Malaysian general election, ensuring an uninterrupted Barisan Nasional’s 60-year rule since Independence? Or will the election expected later this year be a black swan jolt for the ruling coalition?

Since the last general election in May 2013, Najib’s standing has taken a beating as a result of multiple financial scandals and unpopular economic decisions such as the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), and cuts in subsidies to essential items. While Najib’s vulnerability may have been obvious, the Opposition has also had a hard time, suffering major splits and realignments.

Ever since the political tsunami in 2008 and especially after the 2013 election, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has been pursuing a Malay-centric strategy, including forming a de facto relationship with its erstwhile arch-rival the Islamist party Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), to appeal to the insecurity and fears of the Malay majority.

The current political twist for Malaysia is that the discontent among Malays is at its highest since Anwar Ibrahim’s sacking in September 1998, and the man who sacked Anwar, former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohammad, is playing a major role in this scenario, as one of the Opposition’s leaders.

Johor, where the speaker represents the parliamentary constituency of Kluang, will be a major electoral battleground in the months to come.

About the Speaker

Liew Chin Tong was elected Member of the Parliament for Kluang in May 2013. He was previously the Member of Parliament for Bukit Bendera (2008-2013). Since 1999, Chin Tong has served DAP in various capacities and is now a Member of its Central Executive Committee, and the party’s Political Education Director. He graduated with a degree in Political Science and an honours degree in Asian Studies from the Australian National University, and holds an International Masters in Regional Integration from the Asia-Europe Institute, University of Malaya.

He was the Executive Director of Penang Institute (previously Socio-Economic and Environmental Research Institute, SERI, 2009-2012) and Research for Social Advancement (REFSA, 2007-2011), and was formerly a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), Singapore.

Registration

For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 12 April 2017.