Seminar: The Economic Impacts of the Singapore – Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail: An Analysis Based on a Geographical Simulation Model
About the Seminar
This seminar examines the potential economic impacts of the Singapore – Kuala Lumpur (KL) High Speed Railway (HSR). These were estimated by researchers from the Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO) using the IDE-GSM – a numerical simulation model based on spatial economics. The simulations covered three different scenarios, i.e., a) Singapore-KL non-stop express service, b) Johor-KL local service, c) Singapore-Johor shuttle service. Simulations were also carried out to compare the economic impacts of the project on Singapore and the thirteen states of Malaysia.
02:45 – 03:00 pm Registration
03:00 – 03:10 pm Opening Remarks (Kazunobu Hayakawa, Visiting Fellow, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)
03:10 – 03:40 pm Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) (Ikumo Isono, Deputy Director, IDE-JETRO)
03:40 – 04:10 pm Economic Impacts of the Singapore-KL HSR (Satoru Kumagai, Director, IDE-JETRO)
04:10 – 04:30 pm Q&A
The Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM)
Ikumo Isono, IDE-JETRO
The Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), together with the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), has been developing the IDE-GSM since 2007. The main purpose of the model is to predict the economic impact of physical or institutional integration on regions at the sub-national level. It can also be used to predict the types of policy measures that are favorable for stable and balanced economic development of the regions by identifying potential bottlenecks and thus extracting the full merits of economic integration. In fact, IDE-GSM simulation analyses have been used in many policy research projects and conveyed to policy makers. In East Asia, lack of quality data remains a challenge to conducting quantitative analyses. However, waiting for precise data to become available is unfeasible because of the urgent need for policy recommendations on development strategies. Despite the challenges, the IDE-GSM has been used along with night-time satellite image to estimate and construct regional economic data and conduct simulations.
Ikumo Isono is a research fellow, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO). He was educated in Japan and received a bachelor degree of economics in Saitama University in 1998. He had a master degree of economics in the University of Tokyo in 2000. He joined the Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO) in 2005 as a research fellow. He was a research fellow in the Bangkok Research Center, JETRO from 2009 to 2011 and dispatched to the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) from 2011 to 2013. His expertise is in spatial economics and connectivity aspects of economic integration in ASEAN and East Asia, including infrastructure development, economic corridors, logistics, trade and transport facilitation, free trade agreement (FTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Economic Impacts of the Singapore-KL HSR: Simulation Results from the IDE-GSM
Satoru Kumagai, IDE-JETRO
In this session, we will introduce the economic impacts of Singapore-KL HSR estimated using the IDE-GSM, a numerical simulation model based on spatial economics. We conducted the simulation along three different scenarios, i.e., a) Singapore-KL non-stop express service, b) Johor-KL local service, c) Singapore-Johor shuttle service, and compared the economic impacts for Singapore and 13 states in Malaysia. The economic impacts of the project under these three scenarios differ in terms of size and distribution. There are also differences in terms of industrial sectors that gain from the HSR development. The simulations further revealed that the economic impacts are influenced by the quality of supporting infrastructure, such as a good transport between HSR stations and the city centre, and a smooth border control.
Satoru Kumagai is a director, Economic Geography Studies Group, Inter-disciplinary Studies Centre, Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), JETRO. Since 1996, Mr Kumagai has joined IDE as a researcher in charge of economic integration in East Asia and Malaysia’s economic affairs. He has been working for the development of the Geographical Simulation Model (GSM), an economic model based on spatial economics since 2007 and the results of the simulation are widely used in various conferences held by ERIA, ADB as well as IDE-JETRO. He was a visiting research fellow at Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) during 2013-2015. He received his Master in Media and Governance degree from Keio University in 1996 and his MSc in Global Market Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science in 2004.