REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
(Revised)
The book THE VEIL OF CIRCUMSTANCE published by ISEAS in November 2016 and authored by Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller analyzes the turmoil and seeks answers in an increasingly unpredictable world of problems and challenges
About the Seminar
How did we get into this mess? Discontent and frustrations fuel movements and rebellion against the global model. How do we get out of the mess? Why doesn’t globalisation work? What is the role of social networks? Which economic model will we see in the future? The author puts forward ideas of how to provide ANSWERS to the most challenging transition civilization has ever faced: From Societies to Humanity. How groups and values can help to make economics and politics work again.
About the Themes in the Book
“Many ills afflict the global political economy today. Conventional economic tools are losing their power to ensure steady economic growth. Competing nationalisms are creating a more dangerous world that threatens the current international economic and political order. This book gets to the heart of the issues that have brought the world to its current state. Mr Moeller is to be congratulated for producing an historically grounded analysis which suggests a different way forward for our unequal, resource-depleting world economy.”
– Pang Eng Fong, Professor (Practice), Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University
“This book, immensely rich in data and keen observations, dwells into the central challenges of our economic and political system – the erosion of trust, the declining coherence and the shrinking common space. The author’s attempt to sketch out what can be done to help us address these challenges brought about by globalization, digitalization and our disconnect with nature is well worth pondering about.”
– Yeo Lay Hwee, Director, European Union Centre in Singapore
“Our world is changing deeply at the moment, economically, technologically, and socially. Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller is an astute observer of the forces and mechanisms causing these changes. Well worth reading and pondering.”
– W. Brian Arthur, formerly Morrison Professor of Population Studies and Economics, Stanford University
“In his brilliantly illuminating book the author referenced the fundamental historical facts to trace the sources and triggers of a paradigmatic ongoing change in society, economy and world order. He did this with an immense knowledge, circumspection and interdependent understanding of the relevant forces and undertook a well-structured and documented research and analysis. We get valuable and important impetus as food for thought to a coming complex and gigantic change.”
– Alfred Scheidegger, Dr, Founder and CEO of Nextech Invest Ltd, formerly member of the board of directors, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich
“It has been more than 15 years ago when Joseph Stiglitz wrote, Globalisation and its Discontents with the message that there is evidence of much unhappiness in the way global reforms were taking place ,and how that have impacted developing and poor countries. Stiglitz concluded that the main issue is not with globalisation but rather the process of management was very much lacking. And now in Stiglitz, in his latest book, Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy’ had argued that this old message he had on globalisation is now affecting the advanced economies.
Professor Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller is never one to evade the complexity and subtleties of current affairs. He pursues the issues of the day with an intellectual curiosity, clarity of thought and completeness that is enriched with his vast experience in the Danish diplomatic service, policy-making and academia. In this book, he uses an interdisciplinary approach to discuss the intrinsics including globalisation that is shaping the world.
While Stiglitz’s point is about managing the needed change as in globalisation, Møller’s argument is to reinforce a better global governance , and a challenge of minds for world leaders and policy makers to create a new world where not only Science and Technology matters but also to some semblance of sanity where deep consciousness can take root, where inspiration , thought and creativity, strong bonds and cohesion in and across societies deepens, making cultural identities count , and above all when materialism fades.”
– Euston Quah, Professor, President, Economic Society of Singapore, Head of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
“An excellent and important book, wide-ranging (and comprehensive), drawing together many strands which we have already observed ourselves into a single coherent analysis with many original insights.”
– Stuart Larkin, Consulting Economist
About the Author
Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller is a seasoned diplomat having served as State-Secretary 1989-1997 in the Royal Danish Foreign Ministry and from 1997 to 2005 as Denmark’s ambassador in Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Since 2005 with ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore Management University, and MFA Diplomatic Academy (Singapore) plus Copenhagen Business School and University of Copenhagen. He is a well-known futurist and author having published HOW ASIA CAN SHAPE THE WORLD (2010) and THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN TRANSITION (2013). Since 1997 he has lived in Singapore.
About the Chairperson
Francis E. Hutchinson is a Senior Fellow and Co-ordinator of the Regional Economic Studies and Malaysia Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. He is the Managing Editor of the Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, and is the author of Mirror Images in Different Frames? Johor, the Riau Islands, and Competition for Investment from Singapore (ISEAS, 2015), and co-editor of Asia and the Middle Income Trap (Routledge, 2016).
About the Panelists
Pang Eng Fong is Professor (Practice), Lee Kong Chian School of Business, (LKCSB), Singapore Management University. He has served as Dean, LKCSB and in Singapore’s diplomatic missions in Seoul, Brussels and London.
Yeo Lay Hwee is Director of the European Union Centre in Singapore since 2009. She is also Council Secretary and Senior Research Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), and Adjunct Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Since 2011, she is Co-Editor in Chief of the Asia Europe Journal. An international relations expert, her research interests revolve around comparative regionalism, principles of multilateralism and governance networks. She has written extensively on issues pertaining to Asia-Europe relations in general, and in particular, the ASEM process and relations between the European Union and ASEAN.
Programme
14.45 pm Registration
15.00 pm Opening Remarks by the Chairperson (Francis E HUTCHINSON)
15.10 pm Introducing the themes in the book (Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller)
15.20 pm First Panellist (PANG Eng Fong)
15.40 pm Second Panellist (YEO Lay Hwee)
15.55 pm Questions & Answers Session
17.00 pm Refreshments
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email it to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 13 January 2017.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
Production fragmentation has become a global trend in recent decades. Observers claim that participating in a global value chain (GVC) is crucial for a country’s economic development. However, local firms in developing countries still tend to find it difficult to participate in global production networks, and it is not clear how local workers can benefit from these networks. This seminar explores the mechanism of the GVC participation of firms from the perspective of firms’ management practices, using results from a survey of Vietnamese firms.
Presentation I:
Internationalization of Firms, Human Resource Management Practices, and Workers in Developing Countries: An Overview
Isao Kamata, Kobe University
The presentation provides an overview of the relationship between internationalization and productivity of firms in which human-resource management practices play an important role as a key determinant of firms’ productivity. The presentation also discusses some of the potential benefits from firms’ participation in GVCs that would accrue to local workers, especially in developing economies. Finally, It will lay out the background of the survey that we have been conducting.
Isao Kamata is an Associate Professor at Kobe University. His research covers a variety of topics in international trade such as firm heterogeneity in the comparative-advantage framework and labor in trade. He was previously researching and teaching as an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh and the University of Wisconsin. He received PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan–Ann Arbor.
Presentation 2:
How Do Internationalized Firms Differ from Non-internationalized?: Evidence from Survey Results
Hitoshi Sato, IDE-JETRO
The presentation will discuss the role of management practices in the internationalization of domestic firms, based on the results of an original survey in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector. Special attention will be given to human resource management (HRM) practices, such as compensation, recruitment, and job training, to capture the effect of globalization on workers at the firm level. We find that internationalized firms tend to be more enthusiastic about the formal training of production workers, modernization of production and operation, and product and process innovation. Differences in skill and experience requirement for newly employed managers are less recognizable, but internationalized firms tend to have managers with overseas education.
Hitoshi Sato is a Senior Research Fellow at IDE-JETRO. His research field is international trade. Dr Sato’s recent research interest include the interaction between the internationalization of firms and labor markets. He recently worked with ILO on the labor market consequences of globalized East Asian economies. He received PhD in Economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email it to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 12 December 2016.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
AND
SINGAPORE APEC STUDY CENTRE
AND
SINGAPORE APEC STUDY CENTRE
About the Seminar
Multinational enterprises (MNEs) from East Asian countries have significant investments in the Southeast Asia region. The main objective of this seminar is to examine how the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) will affect the operations of these MNEs in both countries that are and are not participating in the TPP. These include East Asian MNEs that originate from both countries that are members of TPP (Japan) as well as non-member region (Taiwan).
TPP and Japanese Manufacturing Affiliates in ASEAN
Dr Kazunobu Hayakawa
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE)
Dr Kazunobu Hayakawa is a senior research fellow of the Inter-disciplinary Studies Center, Institute of Developing Economies (IDE). He was a research associate in Keio University during 2005-2008. He also worked at Bangkok office of Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) during 2011-2015. He received his doctorate from Keio University with a dissertation on intermediate goods trade in 2008. His main research areas are international economics and economic geography. He has published in many journals such as the Journal of Economic Surveys, the Review of World Economics, and the Oxford Economic Papers.
TPP and Taiwanese MNEs in Southeast Asia
Dr Shin-Horng Chen
Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
Dr Shin-Horng Chen is currently the Director and a research fellow of the International Division at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), a leading economic think tank in Taiwan. Apart from full-time research work, Dr Chen has taught EMBA/MBA courses at several universities in Taiwan, including National Taiwan University, National Tsinghua University and National Chiao Tung University. Dr Chen has intensive research experience on the development of the ICT industry, science and technology policy, national innovation system, global production and innovation networks, R&D internationalization. In recent years, he has extended his research fields into China’s industrial development and innovation, technology foresight, and service innovation. He is also an experienced reviewer for a few R&D programs sponsored by the Taiwanese government. For his well-respected work of innovation and policy studies, Dr Chen received Award for Innovation Model Promoter, First National Industry Innovation Award from the Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2011. Out of his policy studies, Dr Chen has generated a number of academic publications in the international academic community. His recent academic publications can be found in a few referred journals, such as Research Policy, Technovation, R&D Management, Industry and Innovation, Asian Journal of Technology Innovation, Working Paper of National Bureau of Economic Research, China Economic Review, China Information, and NTU Management Review. He has also contributed papers to more than twenty editorial books, published by international academic publishers.
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 15 September 2016.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
AND
SINGAPORE APEC STUDY CENTRE
AND
SINGAPORE APEC STUDY CENTRE
About the Seminar
The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) was signed by twelve countries in February 2016. Only four of the ten ASEAN member countries are participating in the TPP. Will the other non-participating ASEAN countries such as the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia be economically disadvantaged from not participating in the TPP? Will TPP affect the trade and investment patterns in these non-TPP ASEAN countries? Should these countries consider joining the TPP in the future given the costs and benefits of doing so? In this seminar, a group of prominent country economists from the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia will reflect on these questions.
TPP: Are We In or Out? Possible Implications for the Philippines
Dr Rafaelita Aldaba
The Philippine Department of Trade & Industry
The TPP countries are important markets for Philippine exports and major sources of imports and investments. This presentation will examine how the TPP could affect a non-member country like the Philippines. The analysis will focus on major findings from existing studies quantifying the trade diversion effects of the TPP on Philippines. It will also present the trade and investment performance and structure of the Philippines and TPP member countries and identify the possible sectors that would most likely be affected. Given the potential losses of remaining outside the TPP, the necessary regulatory and policy reforms to enable the Philippines to successfully participate in the TPP will also be discussed.
Dr Rafaelita Aldaba is currently Assistant Secretary of the Philippine Department of Trade & Industry – Industry Development & Trade Policy Group. Prior to her appointment, she served as Senior Research Fellow and Vice-President of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS). She has extensive research experience on development issues with focus on industrial policy, regional economic integration, international trade, foreign direct investment, competition policy, and small and medium enterprises.
The Impact of TPP on Thai Economy
Dr Archanun Kohpaiboon and Dr Juthathip Jongwanich
Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University
The presentation discusses the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Thai economy. We review the agreement and highlight the potential gains and losses relevant to Thailand. The former focuses on preferential market access to the US which is the world’s largest economy and yet a country that that has not signed any FTA with Thailand. In the latter, the adverse effect of the TRIPs plus in TPP on pharmaceutical expenditure in Thailand is emphasized. There are other issues covered in TPP that are likely to be either non-binding constraints (e.g. investment agreement) or their impacts unquantifiable given the time and space constraints (e.g. government procurement, environmental agreement). We find that potential gains would be limited on certain product categories of garment export to the US. While there is belief that the TPP and cumulative ROO in particular could alter supply chain of production network, it is unlikely to occur due to a number of exceptions in TPP itself. It is unlikely to compensate the losses in terms of more expensive medicines.
Dr Archanun Kohpaiboon is currently an Associate Professor in the Faculty Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand. He specializes in trade, FDI and industrial development. A well-known economist in Thailand, Dr Kohpaiboon has won numerous research awards including the Best Young Economist in 2006 awarded by a jointing committee of seven Leading Economics Research Institutes in Thailand. He has published extensively in leading peer-reviewed journals such as World Development, Asian Economic Journal and Research Policy. He is currently editor of the Thammasat Economic Journal. Dr Kohpaiboon received his PhD from the Australian National University.
Dr Juthathip Jongwanich is currently Assistant Professor in the Faculty Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand. Her previous appointments include Assistant Professor in the School of Management (SOM) at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) and Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila, the Philippines. Her specialization is in International Economics and Managerial Economics. Dr Jongwanich obtained her Ph.D in Economics from the Australian National University, Australia in 2005.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Challenge: Indonesia’s Economic Cooperation Option
Dr Kiki Verico
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM)
Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Indonesia (FEB UI)
In October 2015, during President Joko Widodo’s official visit to the USA, his excellency stated that Indonesia ‘intend’ to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in the future. This presentation attempts to analyse the potential impact of the TPP on Indonesia’s economy – both if Indonesia successfully joins the TPP and on the opposite, if it remains outside. This study focuses on the trade and investment with some discussions of issues relating to the Indonesia’s position in the Global Value Chain (GVC) and Regional Value Chain (RVC). The latter will further discusses the impact of the TPP on economic convergence in Southeast Asia. This is an important issue given that Indonesia always expect positive economic outcomes from Southeast Asian economic integration – both at the regional level (ASEAN Economic Community) and regional plus level (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). This presentation will discuss Indonesia’s trade position in the TPP member’s market and their investment (FDI Inflows) role in Indonesia. It will answer the question of whether Indonesia should or should not join the TPP.
Dr Kiki Verico obtained his bachelor degree in economics (monetary economics) from School of Economics Faculty of Economics and Business University of Indonesia (FEB UI), master in regional economic integration of double-degree program from University of Malaya and Universidad Autonoma de Madrid and Ph.D degree in International Studies (economics) from Waseda University in Tokyo. He started to work at the FEB UI in 1999 as teaching assistant and a year later in 2000, he joined the Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM FEB UI) as a research assistant. Among his research interests are international trade, Foreign Direct Investment flows, regional economic integration issues, ASEAN economic integration process, Southeast Asia economies, and multi-country economic cooperation that features Indonesia. Before he has been appointed as Deputy Director of Research of LPEM FEB UI in early January 2016, he was appointed as Head of International Trade and Macroeconomic Research Division of LPEM FEUI from August 2014 to December 2015. Dr Verico has published academic articles in peer-reviewed journals such as the Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development (AJAD), Bulletin of Indonesia Economic Studies (BIES), Economics and Finance in Indonesia (EFI) and the Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development (JECD).
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 1 September 2016.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
In a well known paper (“Catching up, forging ahead, falling behind”) originally published in 1986, Abramovitz argued that all countries which are relatively backward in terms of levels of productivity had the potential for rapid advance, and indeed could catch up quickly with the leading economies if they could realize this potential. This seminar examines the “catch-up” hypothesis in the context of the ASEAN countries in the 50 years from 1960 to 2010. It is argued that the ASEAN countries present a very mixed picture; the two economies which already had the highest per capita GDP in 1960 (Singapore and Malaysia) have both forged ahead over the past 50 years. But the Philippines which was well ahead of both Thailand and Indonesia in 1960 has fallen behind both countries while the CLMV countries also fell behind until 1990; while they have grown rapidly since then there is a wide gap between them and the leading economies in the region. The paper offers some explanations for these outcomes.
About the Speaker
Anne Booth is the Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Distinguished Fellow on Contemporary Southeast Asia at Shorenstein-APARC, Stanford University, during October and November 2015, and at NUS in July-August 2016. She was Professor of Economics (with reference to Asia) at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London from 1991 to 2013, and is now Professor Emeritus. Before moving to London, she held posts at the University of Singapore and the Australian National University. She grew up in New Zealand, and graduated from Victoria University of Wellington, and the Australian National University in Canberra. Her main research interest is the modern economic history of Southeast Asia, and the impact of different colonial legacies on post-colonial development across East and Southeast Asia. Her book, Colonial Legacies: Economic and Social Development in East and Southeast Asia, was published by the University of Hawaii Press in 2007, and she has just completed a study of Indonesian economic development which has been published by Cambridge University Press in 2016. She is using her time at Stanford and at NUS to gather material for a study of changing living standards in Southeast Asia from the early 20th century to the present.
Registration
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 11 August 2016.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
AND SINGAPORE APEC STUDY CENTRE SEMINAR
About the Seminar
Amongst the two most contentious issues in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement are those related to the provisions on investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) and intellectual property (IP). This seminar will feature the reflections and analyses of two eminent scholars on how the ISDS and IP provisions in TPP will affect Southeast Asian countries.
Registration
To register, please please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 4 August 2016.
Programme
| 9:30 -10:00 am | Registration |
| 10:00 -10:30 am | The Impact of TPP Investor-State Dispute Settlement on Southeast Asia
|
| 10:30 -11:00 am | Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Intellectual Property Landscape and its implications for ASEAN
|
| 11:00 -11:30 pm | Discussions |
Programme Details
The Impact of TPP Investor-State Dispute Settlement on Southeast Asia
Professor Luke NOTTAGE
University of Sydney
Abstract
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement signed in February 2016 by 12 Asia-Pacific economies provides foreign investors with the option of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), as well as inter-state arbitration, to enforce substantive provisions on investment liberalisation and protection offered by host states to encourage more inbound investment. Although ISDS creates a more credible enforcement mechanism, concerns have been growing that it leads to too many costly arbitrations that also overly restrict host state regulatory autonomy.
To assess the impact of the TPP’s ISDS provisions, it is useful to consider regional investment trend and the broader ISDS experiences and policy positions on the part of existing signatories from ASEAN member states (Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam), as well as several others that have already indicated interest in joining the TPP after it comes into force (Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand). The first half of the paper shows they have mostly (except for Indonesia) already weathered quite successfully a few initial claims, which otherwise tend statistically to lead to strong adverse reactions in host states. Alternatively, Brunei and Singapore are unlikely to be subjected to ISDS claims and then react strongly against this procedure, meaning a major impact from the TPP provisions.
The second half of the paper examines the ISDS provisions of the TPP, as well as key features of the substantive provisions on investment that the mechanism is designed to enforce, against trends in the past and present treaty practice of the existing and potential ASEAN signatories. The analysis suggests that the TPP provisions are quite similar to those in their recent investment treaties, and indeed often more favourable to host state interests than their earlier standalone Bilateral Investment Treaties. From this perspective too, therefore, the TPP investment chapter may not have such a large adverse impact in Southeast Asia as some commentators have feared.
Nonetheless, the conclusion of the TPP and its potential expansion may cast a large shadow over other FTA negotiations, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (ASEAN+6 FTA). There might otherwise be more scope to introduce recent innovations proposed by the EU (including a permanent investment court, instead of ad hoc ISDS tribunals), although Vietnam has already incorporated some into its new bilateral FTA with the EU. The emerging new EU model may represent an even better balance between encouraging and protecting foreign investment and maintaining adequate regulatory autonomy, resulting in maximum net benefits for Southeast Asia.
About the Speaker
Luke Nottage specialises in international arbitration, contract law, consumer product safety law and corporate governance, with a particular interest in the Asia-Pacific region. He is Professor of Comparative and Transnational Business Law at Sydney Law School, founding Co-Director of the Australian Network for Japanese Law (sydney.edu.au/law/anjel), and Associate Director of the Centre for Asian and Pacific Law at the University of Sydney. Luke’s 12 books include International Arbitration in Australia (co-edited with Richard Garnett, Federation Press, 2010), Foreign Investment and Dispute Resolution Law and Practice in Asia (co-edited with Vivienne Bath, Routledge, 2011) and ASEAN Product Liability and Consumer Product Safety Law (co-edited with Sakda Thanitcul, Winyuchon, 2016). Luke is an ACICA Special Associate and founding member of the Rules drafting committee, the Australasian Forum for International Arbitration council’s Japan Representative, and on the panel of arbitrators for the BAC, JCAA, KCAB, KLRCA, SCIA and TAI. Luke has also consulted for law firms world-wide, ASEAN, the EC, OECD, UNCTAD, UNDP and the Japanese government, and is Managing Director of Japanese Law Links Pty Ltd (www.japaneselawlinks.com).
*******************************************************
Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Intellectual Property Landscape and its implications for ASEAN
Associate Professor Elizabeth Siew-Kuan Ng
National University of Singapore
Abstract
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has added yet another layer of complexity to the international intellectual property (IP) landscape. Concluded more than twenty years after the ground-breaking WTO’s TRIPS Agreement, TPP is part of a new paradigm where consensus on new intellectual property commitments are achieved in the context of trade and investment agreements where intellectual property is often one part of a broader negotiating package. These successive post-TRIPS bilateral and plurilateral instruments have ratcheted intellectual property standards way beyond that originally contemplated in the multilateral TRIPS Agreement. This work evaluates some of the changes that TPP will introduce, particularly in respect of the more controversial areas such as pharmaceuticals/ public health and the digital environment. It will analyse how these TRIP-plus IP provisions will impact on the current ASEAN IP landscape and proffer a potential model on how ASEAN can pursue its quest for an inclusive regional IP regime amidst the currently polarised and fragmented multilateral intellectual property framework.
About the Speaker
Elizabeth Siew-Kuan Ng is the Deputy Chairwoman and Director of Intellectual Property (IP) at the Centre for Law & Business and the Director of the Graduate Certificate in IP (GCIP) program, at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Law School. She has served as amicus curiae to the Singapore Court of Appeal on Intellectual Property matters and is an IP Adjudicator of the Intellectual Property Office of Singapore. She is also the External Academic Adviser on IP at City University of Hong Kong Law School (China), a member of the Advisory Committee and Institutional Review Board of Temasek Polytechnic SAC (Singapore) and a Fellow of the Cambridge Commonwealth Society. Elizabeth is a Barrister-at-Law of the Middle Temple (England), an Advocate and Solicitor of the Supreme Court of Singapore. She graduated with a Bachelor of Laws (Honors) from the University of London’s Queen Mary College where she was awarded the Sweet & Maxwell Law prize and Faculty of Law prize. She later obtained a Master of Laws with First Class from the University of Cambridge on a Cambridge Commonwealth Trust scholarship where she was awarded the Clough prize. She was formerly a consultant of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) (Geneva) and has held visiting appointments at various international organizations and research institutes etc. including the Max Planck Institute of Intellectual Property (Munich); US Court of Appeal for the Federal Circuit (Washington DC); and EAIEL ICT Research Network (University of Hong Kong, China).
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
On June 23, the United Kingdom held a referendum for its people to decide whether the country would leave or remain within the European Union (EU). A slight majority voted to leave, prompting a leadership change in the UK and discussions on when to begin withdrawal from the EU. The result has also prompted a wider discussion on the future of the European ‘project’ of closer economic and political integration.
This seminar focuses on the geopolitical and economic implications of Brexit. With regards to geopolitical issues, it will explore the political repercussions of Brexit from a British perspective, including: underlying reasons for the ‘Leave’ Campaign’s success; key objectives the UK government has in negotiations with the EU; and how its relations with other parts of the world may change in a post-EU context. From there, it will analyze the implications of Brexit from a continental European perspective, including what it means for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union.
The seminar will also set out the key economic ramifications of Brexit. Key issues include the impact on the architecture of the European trading system as well as the options the United Kingdom has with regards to developing a new trading arrangement with the EU. The seminar will also assess the direct implications of Brexit for the Singaporean economy, as well as the potential for a generalized economic downturn.
About the Speakers
Topic: Brexit – A UK Perspective
Alexandra McKenzie arrived at the British High Commission, Singapore in August 2015 as Deputy High Commissioner and Political Counsellor. Prior to that, she was Deputy Head of the ASEAN Department in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO). Ms McKenzie has been posted to the British High Commissions in Berlin, Paris, and Beijing, and has also worked on European Union enlargement issues at the FCO. She has a degree in Philosophy and German from the University of Bristol.
Topic: Brexit – A Continental Perspective
Joergen Oerstroem Moeller is Cand. Polit. (Master of Science, Economics), University of Copenhagen. He joined the Danish diplomatic service in 1968 and worked on European integration issues for 26 years. From 1989 to 1997, he was State-Secretary. From 1997 to 2005, Mr Moeller was Ambassador to Singapore and Brunei Darussalam and from 2002 also to Australia and New Zealand, residing in Singapore.
In 2005, Mr Moeller joined the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore as Visiting Senior Fellow and the MFA Diplomatic Academy as Senior Fellow. He is an Adjunct Professor, Copenhagen Business School and Singapore Management University (SMU).
Topic: Regional Trade Architecture and Options for the UK vis-à-vis Trading Arrangements with the EU
Jack Coleman is a Research Fellow at the Asian Trade Centre — a Singapore-based company that provides trade policy advice and training to governments and businesses in the region. His expertise is in trade policy and international political economy, and he has authored reports on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Before joining the Trade Centre, Jack worked for several years in industrial relations and as a political advisor in Australia. Born in England, Jack studied at Ustinov College, Durham, and then at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore.
Topic: Implications for Singapore
Alvin Liew is a senior economist with the United Overseas Bank’s Global Economics & Markets Research team. Based in Singapore, he is responsible for providing research and analysis coverage of developed economies, specifically US and Japan.
Alvin has worked in the banking industry since 2000 in both public and private sectors. He is also quoted in both local and international financial media, including Channel News Asia, Straits Times, Business Times, CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg. He graduated from the National University of Singapore, with an Honours Bachelor of Social Science degree (majoring in Economics).
Registration
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 15 August 2016.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) was signed by twelve countries in February 2016. Despite the extensive media coverage of the TPP, relatively few detailed country-level studies have emerged on the impact of TPP. The objective of the seminar is to discuss and examine in greater detail the impact of the TPP on three Southeast Asian countries. In the seminar, three distinguished country economists from the region will examine the potential short-run and long-run economic impact of the TPP on three Southeast Asian countries that are participating in the TPP, namely, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.
Registration
To register, please please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 28 July 2016.
Programme
| 09:30 -10:00 am | Registration |
| 10:00 -10:30 am | Reassessing Malaysia’s Export Opportunities in the TPP
|
| 10:30 -11:00 am | Are There Real Economic Gains of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Small-Open Economy? Case of Singapore
|
| 11:00 -11:30 am | Vietnam: Not Yet Ready for Reaping the Benefits of the TPP?
|
| 11:30 -12:30 pm | Discussions |
Programme Details
Reassessing Malaysia’s Export Opportunities in the TPP
Tham Siew Yean
Senior Fellow, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
Andrew Kam Jia Yi
Fellow, Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS)
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Abstract
The main economic motivation for forging bilateral, regional and multilateral agreements for Malaysia is to enhance the export opportunities for its firms as it is relatively dependent on trade for supporting growth. There is an extensive literature on the Trans-Pacific Partnership since negotiations were started five years ago and this literature continues to grow after the agreement was signed in February 2016. The literature identifies some overall gains for Malaysia and some sectoral gains, including in textiles and apparel. The objective of this paper is to re-assess these export opportunities, using a comparative country perspective since the TPP has 12 founding members. It uses three main trade indicators, namely differences in exports shares, extensive and intensive margins to compare Malaysia with Vietnam, Malaysia’s main competitor for the US market as Vietnam, like Malaysia, also does not have an existing Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US. All three indicators show that Malaysia is rapidly losing grounds against Vietnam in textile and apparel but maintains an advantage in the information, technology and communication (ICT) sectors. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings on the export opportunities for Malaysia’s firms under tariff liberalization in the TPP and closes with some policy suggestions.
Tham Siew Yean is a Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. She was formerly Director and Professor at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. As an economist, she has served as a consultant to several national agencies in Malaysia and international agencies, including among others, the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Asian Development Bank Institute. She has published extensively on foreign direct investment, international trade and trade policies, industrial development, and trade in services in Malaysia and ASEAN. She has a PhD in economics from University of Rochester, US.
Andrew Kam Jia Yi is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. He graduated First Class in Bsc. Economics specializing in Econometrics at the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Msc. Economics from Warwick University, United Kingdom and PhD from the Australian National University (ANU). His research interests include international trade, industrialization and economic growth. He was the recipient of the Chevening Scholarship in 2005, Australian Endeavour Postgraduate in 2008 and the 2014-2015 Malaysian Fulbright Scholar Program.
Are There Real Economic Gains of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Small-Open Economy? Case of Singapore
Shandre Thangavelu
Regional Director (Southeast Asia), Centre for International Economic Studies
Institute of International Trade, University of Adelaide
Abstract
Singapore is one of the 12 Asia-Pacific countries that signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in February 2016. The key to TPP is the importance of market access and trade with U.S. and Japan, as these two countries form the “glue” and create the key returns in the TPP agreement. Given Singapore is a small-open economy and already have completed the key FTAs with US, Japan and the respective countries in the TPP, there might be little for Singapore to gain from TPP agreement. The presentation discusses the real and potential gains for small-open economies in TPP and the challenges it faces to benefit from the gains from trade and investment from TPP.
Shandre Thangavelu is currently the Regional Director (Southeast Asia) and Associate Professor at the Centre for International Economic Studies, Institute of International Trade, University of Adelaide, Australia. He is also the Director of Asia Growth Research Centre at University of Adelaide. Shandre Thangavelu is also a Research Fellow at Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalization and Economic Policy (GEP), University of Nottingham. Dr Thangavelu is also appointed into the Governing Board for the Work, Safety, Health Institute (WSHI) of Singapore. He is also the member of the Competition Commission Appeal Board in Singapore. Dr Thangavelu was also appointed as the Managing Editor for Asian Economic Journal (AEJ) in 2009. He is an active researcher on human capital development, technology transfer, foreign direct investment, trade, government infrastructure investment, productivity and economic growth. He has written extensively in ASEAN integration, FDI, human capital development, technology transfer and economic growth and has published his research in major international journals. He has written several books on trade, investment, integration and outsourcing in Asia. He has also worked on several international projects commissioned by UNDP, World Bank, ASEAN Secretariat, APEC, and Asian Productivity Organization (APO). He obtained his graduate degrees from Queen’s University, Canada.
Vietnam: Not Yet Ready for Reaping the Benefits of the TPP?
Vu Thanh Tu Anh
Director of Research, Fulbright Economics Teaching Program
Abstract
Vietnam has been predicted to be the largest beneficiary of the TPP in relative GDP gains and export growth. Among all the industrial sectors in Vietnam, textile and garment are expected to reap the biggest benefits. This presentation will provide an overview of the initial assessment of the impact of TPP in Vietnam, then go deeper into the analysis of the TPP impacts for the textile and garment industry. The presentation will point out that the quantitative analysis so far seems to overestimate the benefits of this industry, while not addressing distributional impacts of TPP, especially between the domestic and foreign enterprises. The ability of Vietnam’s textile and garment industry to take advantage of TPP depends on its ability to develop upstream industries and upgrade the supply chain as well as its capability to overcome the technical barriers of important markets such as the US, Japan and Canada.
Vu Thanh Tu Anh is the director of research at the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program in Ho Chi Minh City, and a senior research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. Dr Tu Anh’s primary research interests include political economy, public finance, economic development, and industrial policy. As the Fulbright School’s research director, Dr Tu Anh leads the Fulbright School’s policy research and analysis efforts, coordinating research teams that often include faculty from both the Fulbright School and Harvard Kennedy School as well as Vietnamese policy analysts from inside and outside government. He teaches regularly in the Fulbright School’s executive education and policy dialogue initiatives with the Vietnamese government. Dr Tu Anh has served as a member of the Board of Experts of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee and the Board of Experts of the National Finance Supervision Council. He is also a member of the Scientific Committee at Vietnam National University in Ho Chi Minh City. Dr Tu Anh frequently comments on economic policy issues in the Vietnamese media. He is an op-ed columnist for the Saigon Economic Times, a leading economic and business journal in Vietnam. Dr Tu Anh received his PhD degree in economics from Boston College.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME AND SINGAPORE APEC STUDY CENTRE SEMINAR
About the Seminar
Negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) were successfully concluded on 5 October 2015. The free trade agreement has potentially far-reaching economic and geo-political consequences for member and non-member countries. Two distinguished scholars will examine these consequences in the seminar.
Presentation 1
TPP: Origin, Special Features, and Economic Implications
Shujiro URATA, Waseda University
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was signed by 12 Asia-Pacific countries in February 2016 after five and a half years of negotiations. The goal of the TPP was to establish a “platinum” standard agreement with high level of liberalization and comprehensive coverage to deal with 21st century issues. In the midst of stalled Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations under the auspices of the World Trade Organization, the TPP is expected to lead the way to establish a free, open, transparent, and fair business environment in Asia-Pacific, which would contribute to economic growth of the region. This presentation will provide an overview of the TPP by discussing its origin, special features and economic implications. One of the issues taken up in the discussions of economic implications is the differing impacts of the TPP on participating and nonparticipating ASEAN Member States.
Presentation 2
Flagging Trade: The Geo-Politics of the TPP
Malcolm COOK, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
By definition, inter-state trade deals are politically as well as commercially motivated. States, not firms, negotiate them. The nature of the global inter-state system helps determines which states negotiate these deals amongst themselves when and how their political leaders justify the deals back home. The inter-state system today is an increasingly contested one and the contest is centred in the Asia-Pacific and between China and the United States. This presentation will first look at how the present contested regional inter-state order has influenced the TPP from when the U.S. decided to join, and how the TPP is being interpreted politically and in the media. With this geo-political “framing” of the TPP as background, the presentation will then look at what the geopolitical benefits would be for the U.S. in particular as well as other signatories if the TPP is passed and what the geo-political detriments would be if the TPP fails to be realised.
About the Speakers
Shujiro URATA is Professor of Economics at Graduate School Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Faculty Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Research Fellow at the Japanese Centre for Economic Research (JCER), Senior Research Advisor, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). Professor Urata received his Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University. He specializes in international economics and has published a number of books and articles on international economic issues.
Malcolm COOK is a Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. From 2003 to 2010, he was the inaugural East Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute in Sydney and then the inaugural Dean of the School of International Studies at Flinders University in Adelaide. Before that, he was a lecturer at Ateneo de Manila University in the Philippines. Malcolm has worked in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and Singapore.
Registration
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 7 July 2016.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
Asia remains the most dynamic part of the global economy but is facing severe headwinds from a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition. Still, the region is well positioned to meet the challenges ahead, provided it strengthens its reform efforts. To strengthen its resilience to global risks and remain a source of dynamism, policymakers in the region should push ahead with structural reforms to raise productivity and create fiscal space while supporting demand as needed.
The potential spillovers from China’s rebalancing on regional economies and financial markets are also assessed. Overall, the region has become more sensitive to the Chinese economy. While China’s rebalancing will have medium-term growth benefits, there are likely to be adverse short-term effects, though the impact will be relatively more positive for economies more exposed to China’s consumption demand. Financial spillovers from China to regional markets—in particular equity and foreign exchange markets—have risen since the global financial crisis and are stronger for those economies with stronger trade linkages.
About the Speakers
Topic: Building on Asia’s Strengths during Turbulent Times
Ranil Salgado is a currently the chief of the Regional Studies Division in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department (APD). The division is responsible for regional surveillance, including production of the Fund’s Asia and Pacific Regional Outlook and Update, and helping develop and implement the department’s strategic priorities. He has been in the IMF for almost 20 years. In earlier years, he was the IMF mission chief to Marshall Islands and Myanmar; was the IMF Resident Representative in Singapore; and worked as part of the country teams on Australia, Canada, Dominica, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, and the United States. He also served in the Research Department on multilateral surveillance and the World Economic Outlook; and in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department leading or helping lead work on trade and capital flow issues; conditionality in IMF-supported programs; and IMF policies on jobs, growth, and inclusion; along with, for a period, approving country staff papers on 20-30 IMF member countries, including several with IMF programs. Prior to joining the IMF, he worked in a strategy management consulting firm and as teaching and research assistants at the University of Pennsylvania, Johns Hopkins University, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. He holds undergraduate and graduate degrees from Harvard University, Cambridge University, and the University of Pennsylvania.
Topic: Navigating the Transition: Trade and Financial Spillovers from China
Tidiane Kinda is currently economist in the Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department (APD) and also serves as Assistant to the Director of the department. He joined the IMF in 2009 and was in the African Department and the Fiscal Affairs Department before moving to APD. He worked on advanced, emerging, and low-income countries in the context of surveillance, IMF-supported programs, and technical assistance, including the Euro Area, Canada, Croatia, Peru, Moldova, Chad, and Mali. He contributed to the IMF’s key documents and publications such as the Fiscal Monitor, the Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, the Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, and the Vulnerability Exercise for Advanced Economies. Prior to the IMF, Tidiane worked in the World Bank’s Research Department and the Research Division of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). He (co)authored 3 books and more than 15 articles in refereed economic journals. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from CERDI-Université de Clermont in France, where he taught macroeconomics and applied econometrics.
Registration
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents3@iseas.edu.sg by 5 May 2016.