In the first webinar of the series on Managing Demographic Change in Southeast Asia: Challenges and Issues Amidst the ‘New Normal’, Dr Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, Dr Premchand Dommaraju, and Dr Hoang Ba Thinh discusses how demographic issues related to ageing, inequality, migration, diversity, employment and technology adoption affects the sustainability and development of various countries in the region.
REGIONAL SOCIAL AND CULTURAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
Managing Demographic Change in Southeast Asia: Challenges and Issues Amidst the ‘New Normal’
Thursday, 19 November 2020 – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute ran a 2-day workshop titled “Managing Demographic Change in Southeast Asia: Challenges and Issues Amidst the ‘New Normal”. The first webinar’s topic was “Demographic Trends and the ‘New Normal’: Reflections on Ageing and Fertility Within Southeast Asia”. Situated within the context of Southeast Asia and the ongoing pandemic, this webinar addressed the role of ageing societies and fertility issues. It was moderated by Dr Kevin S Y Tan, Visiting Senior Fellow from the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme of ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. The webinar featured the insights of Associate Professor Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan (National University of Singapore), Associate Professor Premchand Dommaraju (Nanyang Technological University) and Professor Hoang Ba Thinh (Hanoi University of Social Sciences of Humanities).
Mr Christian Echle, director of the Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung gave the welcoming remarks. Mr Echle noted that studying demographic change in the context of the pandemic was pertinent as there are several aspects which may be adversely affected. For instance, we must be careful not to create a ‘COVID generation’ of youth whose education or work opportunities were disrupted due to quarantines and lockdowns. He further observed that while closing borders is the weapon of choice for countries to curb the spread of the disease, countries need to be wary of souring bilateral relations, which in turn affects the lives of families living at the border.
A/P Teerawichitchainan shared key findings from her analyses of productive aging in three developing Southeast Asian countries: Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand. The first finding was that older persons in Southeast Asia make a variety of important contributions to their families such as caring for grandchildren. The second finding was that education is an important factor in influencing productive activities among older persons such as doing chores. However, the caveat was that better educated older persons in all three countries are significantly less likely to be economically active than their less educated counterparts. The third finding was that there are persistent gender differences in specific dimensions of productive aging (i.e. men: economic contribution; women: non-economic contribution). A/P Teerawichitchainan subsequently described key lessons and challenges in measuring the concept of productive aging in the context of developing Asian countries that lack strong data infrastructure. She concluded by suggesting that it is important to re-think and re-conceptualize the meaning of “productive ageing”. This is due to the shifting composition of older persons in terms of education. She also urged policy makers to view older persons beyond simply heir potential for economic contribution.
Next, A/P Premchand Dommaraju discussed changes in demography and family structures. Southeast Asia will be facing an ageing population in the next 25 years as the number of people above the age of 65 is expected to double. This can be attributed to falling birth rates and rising death rates of older persons. He noted that while Southeast Asia is not homogenous in the sociological or demographic sense, the gap within the countries have narrowed in recent years, in terms of fertility rate and life expectancy. Moving on to aspects of family, A/P Dommaraju examined nuclear households in the region. Current patterns expose some changes with a rise in ‘skipped generation households’, where grandparents and grandchildren live together while parents migrate for employment. This has resulted in an increasing number of transnational families due to marriage with a spouse from another country. A/P Dommaraju interpreted the data on household structures as a result of not only choice, but also due to economic constraints as rural-to-urban migration has been observed in multiple Southeast Asian countries. On gender, he highlighted that a higher number of women in tertiary education compared to men is an indicator of gender parity. However, he admitted that there are still gender issues that need attention such as the issue of legal rights after divorce and the commodification of care. Thus, he called for women to be better acknowledged in policy and also suggested that we should pay closer attention to the feminization of ageing as more women are likely to outlive their spouse dies.
Finally, Professor Hoang presentation focused on “Replacement Fertility Rates in a Society in Transition: The Impact of Vietnam’s Population Policies. He began with some background information on Vietnam and then delved into the data on replacement fertility rates. Vietnam’s Total Fertility Rates (TFR) during 2001–2019 saw a downward trend over the years, from 2.25 children/woman in 2001 to 1.99 children/woman in 2011; during 2012–2019 and was observed to be at the same level or lower than replacement fertility rates (fluctuating between 2.04 and 2.10 children/woman). Professor Hoang also noted that although Vietnam’s fertility rate has been lower than its replacement rate, there are considerable differences between regions and areas, ethnic group, education level, and women’s living standards. He subsequently elaborated on Vietnam’s efforts to correct this downward trend by issuing important policies with a view to changing the focus of population policies from family planning to population and development. The presentation concluded with Professor Hoang suggesting that it would be desirable for the system to relax on birth control policies in order to avoid low fertility in urban centers. This would also reduce the pressure for prenatal sex selection, stabilize high levels of sex ratios at birth and slow the trends towards one-son families and the population ageing process.
During the Question and Answer segment, the audience raised questions on how the forecasted increasing global population can be reconciled with decreases in overall birth rates in Southeast Asia. Other questions were also directed towards the concept of delocalization of living and the perspective towards older persons as a potential burden in society.