In this webinar, Dr Hoe Ee Khor delves into growth prospects in the region and evolving global supply chains. His presentation is followed by a panel discussion with Dr Jayant Menon and Ms Selena Ling.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME WEBINAR
Thursday, 25 June 2020 – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) co-organised a webinar on “ASEAN+3 in Global Value Networks”. The webinar was delivered by Dr Hoe Ee Khor, the Chief Economist of AMRO. Members of the panel discussion include Ms Selena Ling (Chief Economist of OCBC Bank) and Dr Jayant Menon (Visiting Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute).
Dr Hoe Ee Khor began his presentation by sharing the macroeconomic prospects and challenges in the ASEAN+3 region. He then focused on the five key trends that will shape the economy — the likelihood of a bumpy recovery from recession, global protectionism versus regional integration, the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), the rise of Factory Asia as well as an emergence of Shopper Asia. He proposed that trade deals will be important drivers to sustain growth and jobs. The ASEAN+3 region has two major deals underway: the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). He opined that the ASEAN+3 region has been a key part of the global production base and marketplace and must continue to integrate more deeply in these areas.
Ms Selena Ling provided some statistics on COVID-19 and commented on the global growth forecasts provided by the IMF, OECD and World Bank. She then highlighted the impacts of COVID-19 and trade tensions on Global Value Chains (GVCs). She commented that assuming ASEAN+3 economies remain open to trade, capital and talent, the region will be well positioned to leverage on the rebound.
Dr Jayant Menon continued the discussion by giving a global overview of Global Value Networks, and impacts. He stated that GVCs account for almost 50% of global trade today and can operate as a powerful tool to increase incomes and reduce poverty in the developing world and in Asia. He then discussed how US-China trade war affects GVCs in the ASEAN+3 region. He also shared that it is important and timely for ASEAN to reaffirm its commitment to free and open trade as the temptation to retreat behind borders or resort to all forms of protectionism has been rising.
The webinar concluded with Dr Hoe Ee Khor, Ms Selena Ling and Dr Jayant Menon engaging in a question and answer session. In the session, they shared their views on issues such as inflation risks for both the short term and medium term, the impact of Fed’s asset purchases on the financial markets and ASEAN, the extent to which ASEAN is successful in promoting globalisation, and expectations about key economic issues that should feature in the 36th ASEAN Summit.