In this webinar, Dr Burhanuddin Muhtadi discussed factors that contributed to the overwhelming win for Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the 2024 presidential-vice presidential elections. He also elaborated on the potential role of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in Prabowo’s administration and highlighted the implications of this election results on Indonesia’s political future.
INDONESIA STUDIES PROGRAMME WEBINAR
Monday, 25 March 2024 – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) invited Dr Burhanuddin Muhtadi, (Visiting Senior Fellow at Indonesia Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute) to share his analysis on Indonesia’s 2024 General Elections results. This webinar was moderated by Dr Siwage Dharma Negara, Senior Fellow and Co-Coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS.
Dr Burhanuddin began his presentation by analysing the vote count results for all three candidates. The General Elections Commission of Indonesia (KPU) recently announced Prabowo-Gibran pairing as the winners for the 2024 presidential elections with 58.6% votes. This surpassed the estimated vote count from various pollsters in Indonesia (estimation was between 51.6% to 56.4%). This signalled the emergence of silent voters, mainly those who hid their voting preferences until election day. Based on his observation, the majority of this group turned up at the polling stations to vote for Prabowo-Gibran.
Dr Burhanuddin also conducted a demographic breakdown of the exit polls, explaining why this had led to Prabowo’s landslide win in this year’s elections. Prabowo voters are more likely to show up to vote than his opponents, with a higher proportion of them being young voters. Exit polls also confirmed this trend where the participation rate of Gen X and millennials was around 58.7%, much higher than in past elections. Dr Burhanuddin believed that Prabowo’s campaigning tactic of being the “chubby-cute general” or “gemoy” had helped to draw in the young voters. Fueled by social media such as TikTok, this impression of being a loveable yet assertive general had propagated widely among the younger generation, facilitating his victory in the election.
Dr Burhanuddin elaborated further on other demographic indicators. Prabowo-Gibran received overwhelming support from voters with religious or Islamic organisations background, especially from Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) voters. This was interesting as both Prabowo and Gibran did not establish a close connection with NU in this year’s election. The exit polls also showed that Prabowo-Gibran had support from both Muslim and Non-Muslim voters. This was in contrast to Ganjar-Mahfud who relied heavily on non-Muslim voters while Anies-Muhaimin relied on Muslim voters. Prabowo also maximised the support from his political coalition, as seen with Gerinda and Demokrat having 90.2% and 71.7% of voters supporting Prabowo. What tipped the balance was that voters from other political parties showed signs of shifting sides, such as National Awakening Party (PKB) switching to vote for Prabowo instead of Anies, even though his vice-presidential mate, Muhaimin, is the current chairperson of PKB. All these contributed to the landslide win for Prabowo-Gibran.
Dr Burhanuddin also discussed Jokowi’s effect on electoral outcomes. President Jokowi’s high approval rating throughout his administration had garnered him respect among the general population. His decision to shift his endorsement from Ganjar to Prabowo through the appointment of his son as Prabowo’s vice-president candidate resulted in voters switching their votes from Ganjar-Mahfud to Prabowo-Gibran. Apart from that, the social protection scheme (or Bansos) also indirectly influenced the people’s decision to vote. This was fueled by groundless rumours of discontinuing the social assistance scheme if the people did not vote for the candidate pairing endorsed by President Jokowi. The Jokowi’s effect had thus caused the decline in both Anies’s and Ganjar’s votes in the 2024 presidential elections.
Dr Burhanuddin proceeded to provide some predictions, highlighting the possibility of a super majority grand coalition being formed under Prabowo’s leadership. He also offered two scenarios on President Jokowi’s potential role in the government after he stepped down as President. One of which is to become Senior Minister and lead the permanent grand coalition of Advanced Indonesia National Front Parties, consisting of Golkar, Gerindra, PKB, Nasdem, Demokrat, National Mandate Party (PAN), and United Development Party (PPP). The second scenario looked at both Jokowi and Prabowo consolidating and forming their own power base, leading to rivalry within the parliament. The subsequent appointment of members for the next cabinet, together with the election of Golkar’s general chairperson, is therefore crucial as it would highlight the potential changes between President Jokowi’s and Prabowo’s relationship.
The webinar drew an online audience of 129 participants from Singapore and abroad. Some of the topics raised from the Question-and-Answer session included reasons behind the younger generation choosing right-wing populist figures, the future trajectory of PDIP chairperson, Megawati, the possibility of Gibran taking over Prabowo’s position after his first term, the role of the military under the new administration as well as the possible re-emergence of ‘dwi fungsi’ during Prabowo’s administration. Dr Burhanuddin closed the session with some concluding statements, stating that the following few months would be crucial in determining the future political landscape of Indonesia.