In this hybrid seminar, Dr Maxwell Lane discussed how personal rivalry politics had facilitated dynasty building, leading to national politics becoming a theatre of rhetorical polarization among the political elites. Dr A’an Suryana, on the other hand, discussed the role of Islamists in the 2024 presidential elections, demonstrating how it had weakened over the years due to state repression and shifts in the political alliances among the elites.
INDONESIA STUDIES PROGRAMME SEMINAR
Thursday, 1 February 2024 – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) invited Dr Maxwell Lane, (Vising Senior Fellow at Indonesia Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute) and Dr A’an Suryana (Visiting Fellow at Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute) to share their insights on Indonesia’s upcoming 2024 presidential elections.
Dr Maxwell Lane highlighted the impacts of dynastic politics and how it had shaped rhetorical polarisation among the political elites while Dr A’an Suryana discussed the weakening role of Islamists in the 2024 presidential elections. This session was moderated by Dr Hui Yew Foong. (Credit: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute)
Dr Lane discussed the debates over dynastic politics in the 2024 elections, especially with respect to the nomination of Gibran Rakabuming Raka as vice presidential candidate. The resulting controversy might lead to polarisation in Indonesian politics and society, although the extent of this polarisation remained unclear. Dr Lane also highlighted the volatility of the country after the elections, observing that voting patterns from the 2024 elections could reflect some key undercurrents in Indonesian society. He also mentioned that there was less discussion on policy direction differences among the candidates and less criticism towards the candidates’ capabilities in managing the country once elected as president or vice president. Dr Lane also analysed a few potential scenarios as outcomes of the elections, stating that if Prabowo loses the elections with Gibran as his running mate, it would signal a rejection of dynastic politics by the general population. Dr Lane concluded that the votes from this year’s elections could be a pointer toward public consciousness and it would be interesting to observe what would transpire in civil society after the elections.
Dr A’an Suryana elaborated on the role of Islamists in influencing the 2024 presidential elections. He observed a less significant role for Islamists in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, especially with the banning of the HTI and FPI in 2018 and 2020 respectively, which weakened the Islamist groups during President Jokowi’s administration. Dr Suryana also highlighted that influential vote-getters such as Habib Rizieq and Mohammad AI Khaththath were absent from this year’s election campaigns, resulting in minimal offline and social media visibility from their Islamist groups. If there were two rounds for the presidential election, he anticipated that the Islamists’ role might increase in the second round if Anies-Muhaimin managed to proceed to the second round.
The webinar was attended by 20 onsite participants and 109 online participants from the region. During the Question & Answer session, the speakers discussed a range of issues, including the impact of ministers resigning from their ministerial positions, the influence of Islamists at the grassroots level, the potential use of the Palestine-Israel war in strengthening the role of Islamists, Muhammadiyah’s role in the elections, presidential candidates’ approach towards undecided voters, as well as the impact of dynastic politics on Indonesia’s democracy. The session ended with concluding statements from both speakers where they gave predictions on what could happen on voting day and in the post-election phase.