Professor Michael Yahuda, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the London School of Economics, and Visiting Scholar at the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, the Elliot School of International Affairs at George Washington University, delivered a presentation entitled “Uncertainties in the Relationship between Great and Small Powers in Asia”. The talk attracted an audience of over 60 people including diplomats, scholars, researchers, students and business people.
18 April 2017 — Professor Michael Yahuda, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the London School of Economics, and Visiting Scholar at the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, the Elliot School of International Affairs at George Washington University, delivered a presentation entitled “Uncertainties in the Relationship between Great and Small Powers in Asia”. The talk attracted an audience of over 60 people including diplomats, scholars, researchers, students and business people.
The focus of Professor Yahuda’s talk was the issue of uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region engendered by the new Trump administration and its inability thus far to articulate a coherent Asia policy. The speaker began by outlining three distinct periods of the international order following the end of the Second World War: first, the post-war and Cold War era, which was marked by ideological and geopolitical rivalry between the Superpowers; the post-Cold War era during which America enjoyed a “unipolar moment”; and a more fluid and complex era since the terrorist attacks in the US on 11th September 2001. Although America remains the world’s strongest economic and military power in this third era, it has been posited as a time of power transition, when US power has declined relative to that of other countries, especially China, forcing other regional countries to adjust to the new and challenging situation.
The election of Donald Trump in the November 2016 presidential elections has exacerbated this uncertainty in the Asia Pacific. Japan, concerned about US commitment to the region, has strengthened its defence capabilities and sought to improve relations with other Asian countries which share its concerns about a rising China, such as India and Vietnam. China’s military power is growing, but to catch up with the US it will have to innovate, an expensive and challenging prospect at a time when the country’s economic growth is slowing.
The current period of uncertainty has, however, created more space for smaller Asian countries who are able to exercise greater autonomy vis-à-vis their Great Power patrons. For example, the Philippines under President Duterte has moved away from the US and North Korea is pursuing policies inimical to China’s interests, apparently without incurring costs.
Professor Yahuda concluded his presentation by opining that in this new era the US and China had to work hard to establish a new working relationship aimed at preventing small disputes from escalating into major conflict; in a US-China conflict there would be no winners only losers. A prerequisite for this new working relationship is for Washington and Beijing to better understand each other’s interests and perspectives.
Dr Ian Storey, Senior Fellow, ISEAS, introducing a book by Professor Michael Yahuda (Source: ISEAS)