ISEAS Senior Fellow, Dr Malcolm Cook, introducing the speaker, Mr Kyle Kondik, to the audience (Source: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute)
Wednesday, 17 August 2016 – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute hosted a seminar on The Outlook for the 2016 US Elections and Beyond presented by Mr Kyle Kondrik from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Mr Kondrik’s visit to Singapore was supported by the US Embassy of Singapore.
Mr Kondrik analysed how the outcomes of previous elections stretching back to the 1830s and the current polling figures for the November 8 election can tell us about what to expect. History and current polling data clearly weigh in favour of the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton winning the presidential election, the Senate being too close to call, and the Republican Party maintaining their majority in the House of Representatives.
Mr Kondik sharing his views about the volatility and predictability regarding the voting patterns over the last decades (Source: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute)
Growing partisanship over the last decades have made voting patterns less volatile and more predictable, while long-term demographic factors favour traditional Democrat Party constituencies. The Republican candidate Donald Trump is a very unorthodox candidate that may be able to overcome these Democratic Party advantages or amplify their effects.
Participants at the 1.5–hour seminar (Source: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute)
33 attended from the diplomatic community, the media, the business community, academia and the wider public.