In this hybrid seminar, Dr Philips Vermonte shared details about the development of the Indonesian election. He presented a conceptual framework to understand voting behaviour in Indonesia and laid out some projections for the 2024 elections.
INDONESIA STUDIES PROGRAMME SEMINAR
Tuesday, 21 November 2023 – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) invited Dr Philips Vermonte, the Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia, to present in a hybrid seminar on Indonesia’s past elections and what to expect from the upcoming one. Dr Siwage Dharma Negara, Senior Fellow, and Co-Coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS, moderated this session.
Dr Philips Vermonte began his presentation by presenting a theoretical model of voting behaviour. The reward-punishment model of voting behaviour is applicable in some new democracies, where voters have voted out incumbents as they fall short in achieving policy objectives. However, in some other new democracies, this is not always the case. Some voters have kept incumbents in power despite the unsatisfactory performance of the latter. This is exemplified by the 2004 election when the Golkar party defeated PDI-P. Dr Vermonte proposed some possible explanations for such conflicting behaviour; the limited public information, the multiparty system which hampers the voters to assign responsibilities, primordial sentiments like religion and ethnicity, and the electoral rules which incentivise and disincentivise actors and voters.
Dr Vermonte identified some important characteristics of the Indonesian electoral and party system. The first one is the high entry barrier for political parties coupled with increased presidential and parliamentary thresholds. The second one is split voting, where voters’ support for certain political parties does not translate into support for figures the party endorses. The third one is a big coalition, as a result of the threshold. The bigger the number of parties in a coalition, the harder it is for voters to assign responsibilities to particular political parties. A big coalition will also require more time for negotiation, which renders law-making process become more complex and ineffective. The fourth one is economic voting, attached to price of goods. This explains that when the inflation rate goes down, the popularity of the president goes up. The last one is a large youth population, which makes up 54% of eligible voters. Dr Vermonte highlighted that, in contrast with popular belief, young voters do not vote for young candidates.
The hybrid seminar drew an in-person audience of 22 participants and 49 online participants from Singapore and abroad. One of the issues raised from the Question and Answer session was on the partiality of the polling companies. Dr Vermonte acknowledged the importance of keeping survey results credible as it has political consequences. Dr Vermonte as the head of Persepi, an Indonesian organisation which oversees polling companies, laid out some prerequisites made by Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU – General Election Commission) for polling companies so that they are eligible to conduct surveys. Persepi also has an internal mechanism to review survey results, which resulted in the expulsion of three political pollsters in 2014. Persepi promotes public literacy on how surveys work, as uneducated voters often fall victim to the politicisation of survey results. Other issues discussed was on the cost of financing democracy. Dr Vermonte recognised the high logistical cost of the elections due to Indonesia’s geographical condition. To minimise the role of private funds, Dr Vermonte advocated for an increase in state subsidy for political parties coupled with public accountability. Another issue discussed was on parties’ strongholds and how they shape the distribution of voters. According to Dr Vermonte, cultural, anthropological, and religious factors are at play in creating parties’ strongholds and a sudden shift is not expected, at least in this upcoming election. East Java province remains the base for Nahdlatul Ulama partisans, while Central Java is home to Soekarno’s nationalist supporters. PDI-P remains strong in Central Java. Yet, we need to consider President Joko Widodo effect on voters, which may drift support to the Gerindra party. The last issue was on political education. As of now, political education is delivered only by the civil society. KPU, which has an interest in seeing a high participation rate, and political parties that have interest in gaining votes, should play more role in giving political education to the public. Dr Vermonte shared some final concluding remarks, highlighting that Indonesian voters and political players are still on the learning curve. There are signs of democratic regression, but the Indonesian party and electoral systems are stabilising.