In this hybrid seminar, Ms Yenny Wahid shared details about Indonesia’s upcoming 2024 election. Ms Wahid shed light on the importance of this election. She identified the decisive voter groups, common agenda, and critical issues that would dominate the public discourse ahead of the elections.
INDONESIA STUDIES PROGRAMME SEMINAR
Thursday, 16 November 2023 – ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) invited Ms Yenny Wahid, the Director of The Wahid Institute, to present in a hybrid seminar on Indonesia’s upcoming election. Ms Julia Lau, Senior Fellow, and Co-Coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS, moderated this session.
Ms Yenny Wahid began her presentation by highlighting the importance of the 2024 election. Indonesia will hold simultaneous presidential, parliamentary, and local elections in a single day. There are 580 national parliamentary seats, 2,372 provincial seats, and 20,462 regency seats contested. Ms Wahid briefly explained the three-candidate pairings who will run for the presidential election. She continued by elaborating on the three decisive voter groups. Java, as the most populated island, is home to 56.6% of the country’s total population. The youth represent 56.4% of the total population while Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) voters account for 20% of the total population, with a stronghold in East and Central Java.
Ms Wahid pointed out some key issues for the upcoming election. The first issue is the constitutional court’s controversial ruling which paved the way for President Joko Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to run for the presidential election regardless of the age limit. Given the involvement of Gibran’s uncle as the Chief Justice of the Court, conflict of interest is regarded to mar the Court’s decision-making process. Consequently, the government is now facing declining trust in public institutions responsible for maintaining free and fair elections. Another issue would be the debate on continuity versus change. While Anies Baswedan used to be the Minister of Education under President Joko Widodo, Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto are currently still serving Jokowi’s regime. Anies’ campaign revolves around the notion of change, while Prabowo has repeatedly said that he will continue President Jokowi’s success.
Ms Wahid expected identity and religion to persist in public discussion. The latest development on Israel-Palestine conflict has sparked an outcry among Indonesians. In the past, this issue was predominantly used by Muslim conservatives to consolidate their position. However, as evident by the recent Jakarta rally for Palestine, secular figures were seen delivering speeches alongside the Muslim-leaning groups. This issue is now seen as a part of Indonesian national discourse. In general, religious political parties tend to restrain themselves from openly politicizing religious issues. They have experienced how identity politics played by the Muslim hardliners have hurt Anies Baswedan’s image in the 2019 election, thus they have learnt not to use this tactic to dominate the public discourse in the 2024 elections.
Ms Wahid also noticed three common agendas at stake. The first one is the climate crisis which covers energy transition and food security. All three candidates are expected to follow similar paths in approaching the issue. This issue is particularly sensitive for Prabowo as he has been receiving criticism for the failed food estate project in Kalimantan. The second agenda is the Indonesia Emas 2045 vision (The Golden Indonesia 2045). Indonesia will celebrate its centenary in 2045 and is expected to enjoy its demographic bonus where 70% of the population will reach its productive age. The country wants to break away from the middle-income trap, which will hinge upon the current democratic process. Lastly, Indonesia has been able to maintain its diversity through a democratic process. Ms Wahid believes that it is important to ensure that Indonesia can still uphold the legacy brought about by Reformasi.
The hybrid seminar drew an in-person audience of 25 participants and 94 online participants from Singapore and abroad. One of the issues raised from the Question and Answer session was on the role of the youth party. Ms Wahid is optimistic that the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), dubbed as the youth party, will gain substantial votes in comparison with the last 2019 election. However, the parliament will still be dominated by established parties as they have the resources, loyal voters, and value as pull factors. Another topic raised was on Indonesian foreign policy. In light of the geopolitical struggle between the United States and China, Ms Wahid thinks that all candidates share the same interest in remaining neutral as Indonesia is proud of its non-bloc political legacy. There was also a question raised about Ganjar’s image as merely a party officer. Ms Wahid highlighted that Ganjar’s campaign team had designed his campaign lingo as “Tuanku Rakyat” (My master is the people) so as to break away from this perception. Mahfud MD is also seen as a saving grace for this pairing as he enjoys high popularity among the people for his anti-corruption stance. Meanwhile, considering the declining public trust following the Constitutional Court rule, the current challenge for the ongoing president is to steer back people’s trust towards the institutions. Ms Yenny Wahid shared some final concluding remarks, highlighting that she remains optimistic that Indonesia will have a fair election, as the existing mechanism will prevent anyone from intervening in the election.