Seminar: The Impact of TPP on the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia
SINGAPORE APEC STUDY CENTRE
About the Seminar
The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) was signed by twelve countries in February 2016. Only four of the ten ASEAN member countries are participating in the TPP. Will the other non-participating ASEAN countries such as the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia be economically disadvantaged from not participating in the TPP? Will TPP affect the trade and investment patterns in these non-TPP ASEAN countries? Should these countries consider joining the TPP in the future given the costs and benefits of doing so? In this seminar, a group of prominent country economists from the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia will reflect on these questions.
TPP: Are We In or Out? Possible Implications for the Philippines
Dr Rafaelita Aldaba
The Philippine Department of Trade & Industry
The TPP countries are important markets for Philippine exports and major sources of imports and investments. This presentation will examine how the TPP could affect a non-member country like the Philippines. The analysis will focus on major findings from existing studies quantifying the trade diversion effects of the TPP on Philippines. It will also present the trade and investment performance and structure of the Philippines and TPP member countries and identify the possible sectors that would most likely be affected. Given the potential losses of remaining outside the TPP, the necessary regulatory and policy reforms to enable the Philippines to successfully participate in the TPP will also be discussed.
Dr Rafaelita Aldaba is currently Assistant Secretary of the Philippine Department of Trade & Industry – Industry Development & Trade Policy Group. Prior to her appointment, she served as Senior Research Fellow and Vice-President of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS). She has extensive research experience on development issues with focus on industrial policy, regional economic integration, international trade, foreign direct investment, competition policy, and small and medium enterprises.
The Impact of TPP on Thai Economy
Dr Archanun Kohpaiboon and Dr Juthathip Jongwanich
Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University
The presentation discusses the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Thai economy. We review the agreement and highlight the potential gains and losses relevant to Thailand. The former focuses on preferential market access to the US which is the world’s largest economy and yet a country that that has not signed any FTA with Thailand. In the latter, the adverse effect of the TRIPs plus in TPP on pharmaceutical expenditure in Thailand is emphasized. There are other issues covered in TPP that are likely to be either non-binding constraints (e.g. investment agreement) or their impacts unquantifiable given the time and space constraints (e.g. government procurement, environmental agreement). We find that potential gains would be limited on certain product categories of garment export to the US. While there is belief that the TPP and cumulative ROO in particular could alter supply chain of production network, it is unlikely to occur due to a number of exceptions in TPP itself. It is unlikely to compensate the losses in terms of more expensive medicines.
Dr Archanun Kohpaiboon is currently an Associate Professor in the Faculty Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand. He specializes in trade, FDI and industrial development. A well-known economist in Thailand, Dr Kohpaiboon has won numerous research awards including the Best Young Economist in 2006 awarded by a jointing committee of seven Leading Economics Research Institutes in Thailand. He has published extensively in leading peer-reviewed journals such as World Development, Asian Economic Journal and Research Policy. He is currently editor of the Thammasat Economic Journal. Dr Kohpaiboon received his PhD from the Australian National University.
Dr Juthathip Jongwanich is currently Assistant Professor in the Faculty Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand. Her previous appointments include Assistant Professor in the School of Management (SOM) at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) and Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila, the Philippines. Her specialization is in International Economics and Managerial Economics. Dr Jongwanich obtained her Ph.D in Economics from the Australian National University, Australia in 2005.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Challenge: Indonesia’s Economic Cooperation Option
Dr Kiki Verico
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM)
Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Indonesia (FEB UI)
In October 2015, during President Joko Widodo’s official visit to the USA, his excellency stated that Indonesia ‘intend’ to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in the future. This presentation attempts to analyse the potential impact of the TPP on Indonesia’s economy – both if Indonesia successfully joins the TPP and on the opposite, if it remains outside. This study focuses on the trade and investment with some discussions of issues relating to the Indonesia’s position in the Global Value Chain (GVC) and Regional Value Chain (RVC). The latter will further discusses the impact of the TPP on economic convergence in Southeast Asia. This is an important issue given that Indonesia always expect positive economic outcomes from Southeast Asian economic integration – both at the regional level (ASEAN Economic Community) and regional plus level (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). This presentation will discuss Indonesia’s trade position in the TPP member’s market and their investment (FDI Inflows) role in Indonesia. It will answer the question of whether Indonesia should or should not join the TPP.
Dr Kiki Verico obtained his bachelor degree in economics (monetary economics) from School of Economics Faculty of Economics and Business University of Indonesia (FEB UI), master in regional economic integration of double-degree program from University of Malaya and Universidad Autonoma de Madrid and Ph.D degree in International Studies (economics) from Waseda University in Tokyo. He started to work at the FEB UI in 1999 as teaching assistant and a year later in 2000, he joined the Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM FEB UI) as a research assistant. Among his research interests are international trade, Foreign Direct Investment flows, regional economic integration issues, ASEAN economic integration process, Southeast Asia economies, and multi-country economic cooperation that features Indonesia. Before he has been appointed as Deputy Director of Research of LPEM FEB UI in early January 2016, he was appointed as Head of International Trade and Macroeconomic Research Division of LPEM FEUI from August 2014 to December 2015. Dr Verico has published academic articles in peer-reviewed journals such as the Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development (AJAD), Bulletin of Indonesia Economic Studies (BIES), Economics and Finance in Indonesia (EFI) and the Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development (JECD).