Oil, LNG, and Fracking Defines a New Power Game: US Main Exporter, China and India Main Importers, New Alliances in the Middle East
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME SEMINAR
About the Seminar
In 2012 US was the third biggest net importer of fossil fuel. In 2023 it will be a net exporter the scale of which will increase mainly because of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). This is a swing over 10 years of global net import/net export of fossil fuels on a scale never seen before. Geopolitical consequences will be huge.
In a few years’ time China will be the biggest market; India will come next. Global supply will outstrip production leading to lower prices for LNG unless supply is curbed which US policy aims to do. An American-Saudi Arabian alliance is back after having been on the back-burner for some years. Iran, Turkey, and Russia are moving towards an alliance as a counter auguring at best an unstable Middle East and in a worst-case scenario military conflicts. Both China and India have built close ties to Iran and may find it difficult to position themselves in such a power game. US-China relations must be seen in this context. For China opening its market for LNG from the US can be necessary to prevent President Trump from making good on his campaign promise to start a trade war with China. There will likely be a spill-over effect on China/US policies on North Korea.
The European resistance to US policy vis-à-vis Iran will inevitably have consequences for the Atlantic Alliance.
About the Speaker
Joergen Oerstroem Moeller is Visiting Senior Fellow at ISEAS, Adjunct Professor at the Singapore Management University & Copenhagen Business School and the 13th Honorary Alumni of University of Copenhagen. He is also Senior Fellow at the MFA Diplomatic Academy. From 1968 to 2005 he was with the Danish Diplomatic service. From 1989 to 1997 as State-Secretary and between 1997 to 2005 Ambassador to Singapore and Brunei – from 2002 also to Australia and New Zealand.
His recent publications include: The Veil of Circumstance: Technology, Values, Dehumanization and the Future of Economics and Politics (ISEAS 2016); and How Asia Can Shape the World: From the Era of Plenty to the Era of Scarcities (ISEAS 2011).
He has published articles published in a number of journals including Singapore Economic Review, The American Interest, Asia Europe Journal, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, The International Economy, The Futurist, World Future Review, Australian Army Journal, been interviewed by BBC, Bloomberg, CNA and contributed articles to Straits Times, Business Times, Today, International Herald Tribune, South China Morning post, Yale Global online, Huffington Post, The National Interest online.