Girding for Prolonged Uncertainty Fostering Growth and Inclusion in Asia’s Cities
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
Growth in developing Asia is moderating but remains robust. As global trade slows and investment weakens, regional growth forecasts are trimmed from Asian Development Outlook 2019 by 0.3 percentage points for 2019 and by 0.1 points for 2020. Expansion in the region is projected to slow from 5.9% in 2018 to 5.4% this year, recovering somewhat to 5.5% next year. Excluding high income newly industrialized economies, regional growth is expected to slow from 6.4% last year to 6.0% this year and next. Inflation remains benign in the region, but pressure is building slightly as food prices rise. Inflation across developing Asia is forecast at 2.7% this year and next, or 0.2 percentage points up from April forecasts.
Risks tilt to the downside. The trade conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China could escalate further or even spread beyond trade and the two economies. The risk of deeper malaise in the global economy, and uncertainty over how policy makers around the world will respond to weaker global growth, may stoke volatility in global financial markets. Proliferating private debt in some regional economies could pose another challenge to financial stability.
Developing Asia is urbanizing rapidly, promising job creation and economic growth. However, cities must function well as labour markets if they are to enjoy the economic benefits of agglomeration. This requires sound urban planning, efficient public transport, and affordable housing. As cities expand over municipal boundaries and become more connected with one another through flows of goods, services, and people, better planning coordination is needed at all levels of government.
About the Speaker
Arief Ramayandi is Principal Economist in the Macroeconomics Research Division, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department at the Asian Development Bank (ADB). His research interests include business cycle, macroeconomic modelling, and regional integration, among others. He has a Ph.D in Economics from the Australian National University, Australia.
For registration, please click here. Registration closes on 5 November 2019.