Assessing the Impact of the US-China Trade War in an Era of Global Supply Chains
REGIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES PROGRAMME WEBINAR
About the Webinar
The US-China trade war is more than two years old with no end in sight, with COVID-19 further fuelling tensions. This webinar will examine how the trade war has impacted the region through global supply chains (GSCs). It will try and answer the following two, inter-related questions: (1) Why did the restructuring of GSCs happen so soon after the first tariffs were raised? and (2) How can a relatively small bilateral tariff disrupt GSCs, causing seemingly costly restructuring? To answer (1), we examine the underlying causes of the trade war, while we answer (2) by developing a new measure called the effective rate of spillover protection (ERSP). In the presence of GSCs, a bilateral tariff magnifies the amount of protection provided to countries that compete with China for the activities undertaken there, increasing the probability of relocation. This is captured by ERSP but not traditional measures including the nominal tariff rate.
About the Speaker
Jayant Menon is Visiting Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, following his early retirement from the ADB, where he was Lead Economist in the Office of the Chief Economist. He started his career as an academic at the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University at its original campus in Clayton, Melbourne. He has also worked at the University of Melbourne, Victoria University, and the American University in Washington, DC. He is interested in trade and investment issues and how they affect economic development, particularly in the Asian region.
This webinar will be delivered online entirely. You can join the webinar at the specified date and time using devices (computer, phone, or tablet) with internet connection.
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