REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
Author:
Dr Leo Suryadinata
Visiting Senior Fellow, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
Guest of Honour and Speaker:
PROFESSOR WANG GUNGWU
Chairman, ISEAS Board of Trustees; and
Chairman, Management Board, East Asian Institute
National University of Singapore
The Rise of China and the Chinese Overseas:
A Study of Beijing’s Changing Policy in Southeast Asia and Beyond
About the Book
With the rise of China and massive new migrations out of it, China has adjusted its policy towards the Chinese overseas in Southeast Asia and beyond. This book deals with Beijing‘s policy which has been a response to external events involving the Chinese overseas as well as internal needs of China. It appears that a rising China considers the Chinese overseas as a source of socio-political and economic capital and would extend its protection to them whenever this is not in conflict with its core national interest. The impacts on and the responses of the relevant countries, especially those in Southeast Asia, are examined.
Programme
9.30 am – 10.00 am Registration
Moderator: Dr Ooi Kee Beng, Deputy Director, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
10.00 am – 10.10 am Remarks by Author
Dr Leo Suryadinata, Visiting Senior Fellow, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
10.10 am – 11.00 am Speech by Guest of Honour and Speaker
Professor Wang Gungwu, Chairman, ISEAS Board of Trustees; and Chairman,
Management Board, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore
11.00 am – 11.30 am Questions and Answers
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email it to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 1 March 2017.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
Under the Jokowi presidency, Indonesia and China are again enjoying a “honeymoon” period. Anything related to China is seemingly popular among the Indonesian public. Symbolizing the close relationship are, among others, the Mandarin Language, Confucius Institute, Zheng He, and infrastructural loans from China. But despite the current Sino-Indonesian relations being in a “honeymoon” period, the two countries have historically been disturbed by various crises. These are, among others, the question of the nationality status and the “loyalty” of Indonesian ethnic Chinese to their country of birth, Chinese claim over area or areas traditionally owned by Indonesia, and China’s claim over the South China Sea which has threatened to disrupt ASEAN unity. Moreover, the flood of Chinese cheap products to the Indonesian market has drawn antipathy from Indonesian producers. In addition, the presence of Chinese workers in Indonesia’s infrastructure build-up could also provoke the ire of Indonesian workers. Meanwhile, the fact that Indonesia’s political system has several weaknesses may also render the formulation and implementation of her domestic and foreign policies ineffective. The extent to which the aforementioned crises and challenges impacts Sino-Indonesian relations will form the basis of this presentation.
About the Speaker
Abdullah Dahana, known by his pen name A. Dahana, is a retired Professor of Chinese Studies, and a former Dean of the Faculty of Humanities at the University of Indonesia. After receiving his undergraduate education in Chinese Studies at the University of Indonesia, Professor Dahana received his MA in Chinese Literature from Cornell University and subsequently, his PhD in History from the University of Hawaii at Manoa. In the course of doing his PhD,
Professor Dahana was a Research Fellow at ISEAS in 1982-1983. He was also International News Editor for Tempo Weekly News Magazine and Executive Director of AMINEF which administers the Fulbright Program in Indonesia. He writes academic as well as popular articles, mostly on China, in Bahasa Indonesia as well as in English.
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 12 October 2016.
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 12 October 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
The Indo-Pacific region is witnessing significant shifts in power balances partly fueled by the comprehensive rise of China, “rebalance” strategy of the United States, Japan’s re-rise, India’s Act East policy, revival of territorial disputes and contest over maritime, cyber and space commons. As the 2nd largest economy in the world, largest trading partner for over 130 countries and 2nd largest defence spender, China’s strategies have wide implications. The new political leadership in China since 2012 is seen as moving from Deng Xiaoping’s “keeping a low profile” [韬光养晦] to “accomplish something” [有所作为]. Through the 4th national foreign affairs work conference in November 2014 and the Chinese Military Strategy white paper of May 2015, China has firmly indicated its outward orientation. This is also reflected in the CICA summit of May 2014 (“Asian security for Asians”), preparations for One Belt One Road (in continental and maritime domains) and the establishment of AIIB and NDB of BRICS. From being the major recipient of FDI, China is moving towards an outward investment strategy of “going out” [走出去]. An estimated 30,000 Chinese companies have set up shop abroad and over 140 million Chinese tourists went abroad last year. In November 2015 China announced the Djibouti “supply facility” for its Navy and has since 2008 sent 22 naval contingents to the Indian Ocean. Its naval and air forces, by evacuating over 50,000 Chinese from war-torn regions of Libya, Egypt and Yemen in the last few years, demonstrated medium-lift capabilities some 10,000 km away from China. China is in the process of implementing a programme of protection of its interest abroad with enhanced military responsibilities. While overall China has abided by the multilateral processes, its recent responses at the ASEAN meetings and to the South China Sea verdict and its military preparations and outward postures suggest a firming of China’s role in the Indo-Pacific region.
About the Speaker
Srikanth Kondapalli is Professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU). He is Chairman of the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU. He has a background in Chinese studies in India and China with a Ph.D. in Chinese Studies. He learnt Chinese language at Beijing Language & Culture University and was a post-Doctoral Visiting Fellow at People’s University, Beijing from 1996-98. He was a Visiting Professor at National Chengchi University, Taipei in 2004; a Visiting Fellow at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Beijing in 2007; an Honorary Professor at Shandong University, Jinan in 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2015; at Jilin University, Changchun in 2014; and at Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming in 2016. He is the author of two books (China’s Military: The PLA in Transition in 1999 & China’s Naval Power in 2001); two monographs; and has co-edited three volumes (Asian Security & China in 2004; China and its Neighbours in 2010 & China’s Military and India in 2012) besides writing journal articles – all on China. He received the K. Subramanyam Award in 2010 for Excellence in Research in Strategic and Security Studies.
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 3 October 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
Two things have become increasingly clear in Chinese foreign policy: (1) an aspiration to extend and enhance China’s power and influence, soft and hard, or even to have a preponderant role in the longer term, in Asia and the Western Pacific; and (2) after taking primarily a “strategic military” approach over nearly two years with mixed results, President Xi Jinping has sought to make a change towards a “strategic economic”’ approach. However, a few major aspects of the “strategic military” approach still remain in his fundamental posture, making his approach a combined and complex one and looking like “strategic expansion” without any major pull-back. As demonstrated by the practices of the “strategic military” approach there is an imperative for prudence which should be met by China’s future efforts in the One Belt One Road and similar “strategic economic”’ projects so as to prevent strategic overreach.
About the Speaker
Professor Shi Yinhong is a leading strategic thinker in China. He is Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing since 2001. He has served as a Counsellor of the State Council of People’s Republic of China since February 2011. He was previously Professor of International History at Nanjing University where he had also received his PhD in International History in 1988. He served as President of American Historical Research Association of China from 1996 to 2002. He has been a visiting fellow at Harvard-Yenching Institute at Harvard University (1983-1984); a Fulbright visiting scholar at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (1995-1996). He taught graduate courses as Visiting Professor at University of Michigan at Ann Arbor in 2004, 2005, and 2008, and at Aichi University in Nagoya (2004).
Professor Shi has published seventeen books, most of them in China, including Foreign Policy and Historical Lessons (2014); The Pathology, Resurgence, Decline, and Demise of An Empire: A Systematic Analysis of Ba Gu’s Book of Han Dynasty (1st century A.D.) (2014); China’s Political Experience: A Politico-Strategic Reading of Sima Qian’s Historical Record (2 century B.C.) (2012); Thirty Studies on Strategy: Reflections of China’s External Strategy (2008); History of Modern International Relations: From the 16th Century to the end of the 20th (2006); International Politics and Statecraft (2006); From Napoleon to the Vietnam War: Lectures on Modern Strategy (2003); International Politics: Theoretical Exploration, Historical Survey, and Strategic Thinking (2002). He has also published more than 500 articles and essays.
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 19 September 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
America’s presidential election in November will be hugely consequential for the world and especially Asia. Elements of continuity face their own challenges, including the possibility of resurgent major power competition. But eight years of heightened and comprehensive diplomatic, economic, and security engagement could also be replaced by retrenchment. Growing protectionist sentiment could scuttle the all-important Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. A United States less engaged in the diplomatic and security affairs of the Asia-Pacific could create greater uncertainty and potential instability. This presentation will consider the likely elements of continuity and discontinuity in U.S. Asia policy beginning with a new administration in 2017. It will estimate the durability of the rebalance policy and the extent of President Obama’s legacy in the region. Finally, it will offer an updated assessment on the future of TPP.
About the Speaker
Dr Patrick M. Cronin is a Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Previously, he was the Senior Director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University, where he simultaneously oversaw the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs.
Dr Cronin has a rich and diverse background in both Asian-Pacific security and U.S. defense, foreign, and development policy. Prior to leading INSS, Dr Cronin served as the Director of Studies at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Before joining IISS, he was Senior Vice President and Director of Research at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Before that Dr Cronin served as the third-highest ranking official at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
Dr Cronin’s many publications are these recent CNAS reports: Sustaining the Rebalance in Southeast Asia: Challenges and Opportunities Facing the Next Administration (May 2016); Dynamic Balance: An Alliance Requirements Roadmap for the Asia-Pacific Region (May 2016) (co-author); Strategic Resilience: A U.S.-Japan Action Plan for All-Hazard Emergency Management (co-author); Solving Long Division: The Geopolitical Implications of Korean Unification (December 2015) (co-author); and Preserving the Rules: Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia (March 2015) (co-author).
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 31 August 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
On 12 July 2016, the Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague announced its award on the Philippines’ submission on its South China Sea dispute with China. The Tribunal ruled mostly in favour of the Philippines. The ruling has led China to embark on a two-pronged approach of ignoring the ruling and going on an intense diplomatic and media offensive to reiterate its claims in the disputed waters. As such, there is no end in sight to the tensions in one of the most strategically vital waterways of the world, including for the Southeast Asian states that surround the South China Sea.
The Philippines and Vietnam have overlapping claims with each other and with China, whereas Indonesia has had to fend off Chinese fishing vessels in its EEZ near the Natuna Islands. This seminar will discuss the responses to the award by these three states and seek to assess what lies ahead.
About the Speakers
Richard Javad Heydarian is an Assistant Professor in political science at De La Salle University, and, most recently, the author of “Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China, and the Struggle for Western Pacific” (Zed, London). He is an Opinion Writer for Aljazeera English, and a regular contributor to Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). The Manila Bulletin, a leading national daily, has described him as one of the Philippines’ “foremost foreign affairs and economic analysts”. He has contributed to global think tanks such as Brookings Institution and Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and has written for or/and interviewed by ABC, BBC, Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC, Christian Science Monitor, Foreign Affairs, The Guardian, The Economist, The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Der Spiegel, The Straits Times, The Nation, among other major publications. He is currently working on a book on “Obama’s Asia policy” (Palgrave, Macmillan).
Le Hong Hiep is Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. Hiep earned his PhD in Politics from the University of New South Wales in 2015. Before becoming an academic, he worked for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam from 2004 to 2006. Hiep’s scholarly articles and analyses have been published in Contemporary Southeast Asia, Asian Politics & Policy, Southeast Asian Affairs, Korean Journal of Defence Analysis, ASPI Strategic Insights, American Review, and The Diplomat.
Evan A Laksmana is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta, where he coordinates the Military, State, and Society research cluster. He is also a PhD candidate at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. His writings on defense and foreign policy has appeared in Asian Security, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, Defence Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, Foreign Affairs, Washington Post, Jakarta Post, and others. He tweets at @EvanLaksmana
Registration
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 22 August 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
Kyle Kondik, an internationally-cited expert on American politics, will speak about the 2016 United States presidential and congressional elections. He will explain the factors that will help determine the outcome of the election and what the results may mean for the future of American policy. He will also discuss the major figures in American politics and the state of public opinion in the United States.
About the Speaker
Kyle Kondik is Managing Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. Kyle’s analysis of presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial politics has been cited by the BBC, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, BuzzFeed, and numerous other publications, and he is a frequent contributor to Politico Magazine. He also serves as the Center’s communications director and is based in Washington, where he manages the Center’s DC office. He is author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.
Registration
To register, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 16 August 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
On 12 July 2016, the Arbitral Tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will issue its final award in the Philippines vs. China case concerning maritime rights and entitlements in the South China Sea. Initiated by the Philippines in January 2013, the Tribunal was asked to rule on three main issues: first, whether China’s claim to “historic rights” within the so-called “nine-dash line” is compatible with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS); second, the status and entitlement of geographic features occupied by China; and third, whether certain Chinese activities in the South China Sea violate the Philippines’ sovereign rights under UNCLOS. The Tribunal was not asked to determine issues of territorial sovereignty or maritime boundary delimitation. In February 2013, China rejected the jurisdiction of the Tribunal and adopted a policy of non-appearance and non-participation. In October 2015, however, the Tribunal ruled that it had jurisdiction to hear the case and that both parties were bound by compulsory dispute settlement procedures. Since 2013, the final award has been much anticipated.
The panel of international experts on the South China Sea will discuss the background to the award, the essence of the ruling, and its implications for China’s bilateral relationships including with the Philippines and other countries.
About the Speakers
Professor Jay L Batongbacal is the Director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the University of the Philippines. He is a graduate of the University of the Philippines College of Law, and holds a Masters degree in Marine Management and a Doctorate in the Science of Law, both from Dalhousie University in Canada. His career spans across diverse fields of marine policy research, including marine territorial and jurisdictional issues, international maritime boundary negotiations, high seas fisheries, seafaring, shipping, marine environmental protection, coastal resource management, maritime security, and archipelagic studies. Professor Batongbacal has played an important role in several of the Philippines’ submissions in the international legal scene, including the Benham Rise Region case with the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS), and the recent landmark South China Sea case with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA).
Dr Ian Storey is a Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. He specializes in Asian security issues, with a focus on Southeast Asia. Ian is the editor of ISEAS’ flagship academic journal Contemporary Southeast Asia. His primary areas of research are Southeast Asia’s relations with the major powers and maritime security issues, particularly the South China Sea dispute. He is the author of Southeast Asia and the Rise of China: The Search for Security (Routledge, 2011). His latest edited book is The South China Sea Dispute: Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions (with Cheng-yi Lin) published by ISEAS in May 2016.
Registration
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 22 July 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
About the Seminar
Analysts of Southeast Asia have long discussed the possibility of a strategic divide whereby China develops primacy on land and the United States remains ascendant at sea. In recent years, China’s expanding economic and political footprint on the peninsula has given credence to the notion of an incipient Chinese sphere of influence across ASEAN’s “northern tier” of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The launch of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation forum in 2015 gives an institutional embodiment to China’s leadership and contributes to a widespread sense that China’s power and proximity are subjecting its peninsular neighbors to an ever-greater gravitational pull. However, as this presentation will emphasize, neighbors’ acceptance of Chinese influence cannot be deduced deterministically from their relative capabilities or positions on a map. Proximity renders them potentially exposed to domination, but it simultaneously gives them added impetus to seek countervailing forms of protection. The extent to which they accommodate China thus arises as much from their spatial and political distance from other nodes of power as their nearness to Beijing. This presentation will emphasize how U.S. policies in particular have sometimes undermined America’s appeal as a hedging partner, stunted the mainland states’ ability to diversify and integrate into the ASEAN-centered institutional matrix, and left them more inclined to lean on China and to bear the resultant risks. This presentation will survey the mainland states before presenting a more detailed illustrative case from Cambodia, a country now considered by many to be China’s “closest friend” in the ASEAN region. The talk will conclude with brief policy implications, including the potential impact of enhanced U.S. activity in the South China Sea and the importance of consistency and credibility as an incoming U.S. administration reviews the “rebalance.”
About the Speaker
John D. Ciorciari is an Assistant Professor at the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. His research focuses on international politics and law, particularly in Southeast Asia. He is the author of The Limits of Alignment: Southeast Asia and the Great Powers since 1975 (Georgetown University Press, 2010) and co-author with Anne Heindel of Hybrid Justice: The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (University of Michigan Press, 2014). He is currently part of the inaugural class of Andrew Carnegie fellows and is pursuing a research project on UN sovereignty-sharing arrangements with the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York. Before joining the Michigan faculty, he was a post-doctoral fellow at Stanford University (2007-09), policy official in the U.S. Treasury Department (2004-07), and visiting fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore (2003-04). Since 1999, he has been a legal advisor to the Documentation Center of Cambodia. He has a J.D. from Harvard and D.Phil. from Oxford.
Registration
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 18 May 2016.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
ABOUT THE SEMINAR
In October 2014, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s president, succeeding President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Jokowi had no personal, career, class, or political ties to the outgoing administration. He was viewed from a national policy-making perspective as a newcomer, thought to be uninformed and ill-prepared, lacking the attributes and requisites considered necessary for the leader of a self- and internationally-labelled “rising middle power.” This paper explores one policy area – foreign policy – in which particular concerns were raised about the future directions and constancy of Indonesian foreign policy and the suggestions that Yudhoyono’s outward-looking, globalist internationalism would be replaced by Jokowi’s inward-looking nationalism. The prospect of an Indonesian policy discontinuity and unpredictability in post-Yudhoyono foreign policy raised concerns for Indonesia’s neighbours and international partners. The argument presented here is that Jokowi’s foreign policy, while conducted in a lower key than its predecessor, does not appear to be fundamentally different in objectives or deviating from the general course of foreign policy in post-democracy Indonesia. There are changes in style and priorities but the bedrock foundations for policy remain unchanged, and in the conduct of policy, Indonesia still adheres to the principles of bebas dan aktif (independent and active). Under Jokowi, Indonesia continues to be a responsible, cooperative international partner, sharing interests in economic growth and regional peace and security.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
DONALD E. WEATHERBEE is Visiting Professorial Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. He is also the Donald S. Russell Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of South Carolina, and has been described as the dean of the American scholars of the International Relations of Southeast Asia. The various versions of his book, International Relations in Southeast Asia: The Struggle for Autonomy caps more than four decades of teaching, writing, and analysing politics and foreign policy in the region. He was awarded the U.S. Army’s Distinguished Civilian Service medal for his contribution to strategic planning for post-Vietnam War Southeast Asian international relations. Professor Weatherbee is a close Indonesia-watcher. He has lived and taught in Indonesia for about four years and has been a frequent visitor. He also sits on the board of advisors to the United States-Indonesia Society. In addition to Indonesia, Professor Weatherbee has held teaching and research appointments in universities and institutes in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, England and South Korea. He received his PhD in International Relations from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University.
REGISTRATION
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 4 April 2016.
For registration, please fill in this form and email to iseasevents2@iseas.edu.sg by 4 April 2016.