ROF 2021: POWER, POLITICS, AND POLICY IN A POST-COVID WORLD

Held at the beginning of each year, the Regional Outlook Forum (ROF) is ISEAS’ flagship conference. This event, now in its 24th rendition, highlights and analyses global political and economic trends that stakeholders in business and government should anticipate over the near and medium term. Speakers include distinguished scholars, businesspersons, and public intellectuals with strong international reputations. In addition to presentations from subject experts, the ROF features lively and in-depth question and answer sessions.
ROF 2021 will examine key dynamics at the regional and national level, informed by two far- reaching global events – the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election. At the national level, the impact of the COVID pandemic as well as the strategic US-China competition will intersect with underlying and unfolding domestic dynamics.
The ROF has also had to adapt to the COVID pandemic. In order to comply with current public health and safety practices, while also keeping our commitment to vigorous discussion, the event has been moved completely online and will be delivered over two half-day sessions, on the 6th and 7th of January. We look forward to your support!
ROF 2021
WILL SEEK TO ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS
The COVID pandemic has tested Southeast Asia in far-reaching and unexpected ways. In addition to the virus’ direct impact, countries are confronted with economic downturns of a magnitude not seen since the Asian Financial Crisis. Policymakers must juggle the imperatives of containing the virus and re-kindling economic activity, while also understanding and anticipating changes in both established and emerging sectors. The social and economic disruption has also had political implications, as different groups articulate varied and sometimes competing claims for resources.
Over the past five years, US-China relations have grown more fractious and, notwithstanding the advent of the Biden administration, may grow more adversarial. Southeast Asian countries are asking themselves how the powers will engage with the region in trade, investment and connectivity, as well as with regard to the South China Sea. These differing patterns of engagement also have implications for states in other regions, such as India, which are also forced to navigate between the two powers.
Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party will hold its 13th Congress in January. The Congress, convened every five years, elects national leaders and charts the country’s socio-economic direction over the next decade. Key issues to look out for include: potential reforms including a more expansive anti-corruption drive, curbing the reach of state-owned enterprises, and any changes in foreign policy.
In recent months, Thailand’s political establishment has faced multiple challenges. These include increasingly vocal calls from some quarters for the Prayut administration to stand down, and the privileges of the country’s monarchy to be curbed. This has been accompanied by an unprecedented mobilization of young voters accentuated, in part, by a sweeping economic contraction.
While elections are a fair way off, Indonesia is not without its political flashpoints. President Jokowi has inaugurated a new cabinet and is at the head of an enlarged coalition. However, portions of the populace are showing dissension toward increased controls on political life. In addition, state capacity at the central and subnational levels has been stretched due to the COVID pandemic. Moreover, the expansive Omnibus Law has generated spirited contestation in a context where many livelihoods are in peril.
Myanmar will begin the new year on the back of recently-concluded parliamentary elections. Issues that the sitting administration will need to deal with include its legitimacy as determined by the election’s outcome, political changes arising from mobilization in the run-up to the elections, civil-military relations, and the socio-economic impact of the pandemic.
Malaysia’s economic and political dynamics bear close watching. The current administration has the narrowest of majorities and faces potential challenges from across the floor as well as within its own ranks. Aside from a mounting COVID case load, the Muhyiddin Yassin administration needs to consolidate its position. Given the fractious nature of its own coalition, it may need to forge new and unexpected alliances to remain in power.
Registration information
Please register for ROF 2021 here. To help defray the cost of organising the ROF this year, we are asking that all registrants make a contribution of $50 per participant in one of the following forms by 28 December 2020:
- A direct online donation of at least $50 to the ISEAS Research Funds on line via this link (these donations are tax deductible for Singapore taxpayers), or
- An online purchase of at least $50 from ISEAS e-book shop which is accessible here.
Please use the same email address in registering and making your contribution so that the two can be correlated.