The COVID pandemic has tested Southeast Asia in far-reaching and unexpected ways. In addition to the virus’ direct impact, countries are confronted with economic downturns of a magnitude not seen since the Asian Financial Crisis. Policymakers must juggle the imperatives of containing the virus and re-kindling economic activity, while also understanding and anticipating changes in both established and emerging sectors. The social and economic disruption has also had political implications, as different groups articulate varied and sometimes competing claims for resources.

Over the past five years, US-China relations have grown more fractious and, notwithstanding the advent of the Biden administration, may grow more adversarial. Southeast Asian countries are asking themselves how the powers will engage with the region in trade, investment and connectivity, as well as with regard to the South China Sea. These differing patterns of engagement also have implications for states in other regions, such as India, which are also forced to navigate between the two powers.

Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party will hold its 13^th Congress in January. The Congress, convened every five years, elects national leaders and charts the country’s socio-economic direction over the next decade. Key issues to look out for include: potential reforms including a more expansive anti-corruption drive, curbing the reach of state-owned enterprises, and any changes in foreign policy.

In recent months, Thailand’s political establishment has faced multiple challenges. These include increasingly vocal calls from some quarters for the Prayut administration to stand down, and the privileges of the country’s monarchy to be curbed. This has been accompanied by an unprecedented mobilization of young voters accentuated, in part, by a sweeping economic contraction.

While elections are a fair way off, Indonesia is not without its political flashpoints. President Jokowi has inaugurated a new cabinet and is at the head of an enlarged coalition. However, portions of the populace are showing dissension toward increased controls on political life. In addition, state capacity at the central and subnational levels has been stretched due to the COVID pandemic. Moreover, the expansive Omnibus Law has generated spirited contestation in a context where many livelihoods are in peril.

Myanmar will begin the new year on the back of recently-concluded parliamentary elections. Issues that the sitting administration will need to deal with include its legitimacy as determined by the election’s outcome, political changes arising from mobilization in the run-up to the elections, civil-military relations, and the socio-economic impact of the pandemic.

Malaysia’s economic and political dynamics bear close watching. The current administration has the narrowest of majorities and faces potential challenges from across the floor as well as within its own ranks. Aside from a mounting COVID case load, the Muhyiddin Yassin administration needs to consolidate its position. Given the fractious nature of its own coalition, it may need to forge new and unexpected alliances to remain in power.