8 August 2017 - Dr Bridget Welsh, currently Professor of Political Science at John Cabot University in Rome, Italy, gave a comprehensive, balanced talk entitled ‘Malaysian GE-14 Election Scenarios: Old and New Terrain’. Based on her analysis of the various factors which could impact the Malaysian GE-14 election, Dr Welsh concluded that the electoral outcome is uncertain unlike previous general elections.
While the existing socio-economic conditions favour Pakatan Harapan (PH), both the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) and PH are hampered by leadership liabilities. Inter-coalition conflicts persist in both BN and PH and the allocation and distribution of seats among both coalitions’ component parties remain unresolved. The latest re-delineation of seats exercise of making seats more ethnically-defined will advantage UMNO, but will negatively affect BN’s component parties and the Islamic party PAS in West Malaysia.
Unless PAS managed to work out an electoral pact with either BN or PH, the party could wind up as the biggest loser in GE-14. In contrast, the Sabahan and Sarawakian parties are expected to play an even more important kingmaker role in Malaysian politics after GE-14.
About 70 participants attended the seminar.