Webinar on “The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Food Security in Southeast Asia”

In this webinar, Professor Paul Teng from the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, Nanyang Technological University and Ms Genevieve Donnellon-May from the University of Oxford provide an overview of how the Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbates existing food insecurity in the Southeast Asian region, and discuss how countries can respond.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PROGRAMME WEBINAR

Thursday, 26 May 2022 – Professor Paul Teng, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies at Nanyang Technological University and Senior Associate Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, and Ms Genevieve Donnellon-May, master’s candidate in Water Science, Policy and Management at the University of Oxford, spoke on recent developments in agricultural production and supply chains as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. They also touched on intersections with other drivers such as climate change, as well as potential solutions to food insecurity in the region. The session was moderated by Ms Sharon Seah, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme and ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS.

Professor Paul Teng and Ms Genevieve Donnellon-May presented on food security and global trade. Ms Sharon Seah moderated the session. (Credit: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute)

Prof Teng began by giving a brief background on the issue of food security and global trade. He noted that the food deficit already experienced in Asia is likely to increase due to various reasons such as a rising middle class, and changing diets. Moreover, the region has high numbers of small-holder farms with low productivity, partly due to the absence of agri-technology. Poverty and hunger persist in the region despite economic growth, while agricultural employment and available arable land are also declining. Intra-ASEAN trade in goods is only 25% of ASEAN’s total trade and food trade comprises an important component. As ASEAN is a major food importer, supply chains are key to the region, as evident in the effects of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Ms Donnellon-May went on to describe the rising food prices, reduction in exports and yield impacts arising from the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Reduced labour due to military conscription has an impact on the ability to harvest and disrupts essential services like transport, access to water and animal disease control. Hence, prolonged conflict may lead to lower harvests in the coming seasons. Economic sanctions on Russia also affect trade going through the Black Sea. Further, increasing humanitarian needs could limit economic activity and raise prices while hurting the purchasing power of local populations. The resulting pressure on food commodity prices will affect developing countries which are major importers, including those in Southeast Asia which rely on fertiliser and wheat from Russia and Ukraine. 

Prof Teng continued by exploring potential solutions. Asian countries can look to alternative exporters such as the United States, Argentina and Australia, which recently experienced multiple bumper crops including wheat; but questions must be asked on whether they can provide the kinds of wheat used by Asian consumers.  Through technology, ASEAN can also increase self-production, especially by minimising yield gaps (the gap between potential yield and actual yield). This is a challenge as most farmers in the region own small land areas and face greater uncertainties exacerbated by climate change. At the moment, ASEAN countries have some of the lowest investments in agricultural R&D as a percentage of the national budget. Improving their technology could help them close yield gaps and improve their own food resilience. Another option is to reduce or ban exports as seen in Indonesia and Malaysia, which will have ripple effects throughout the global food supply chains. For example, the Indonesia palm oil ban may be seen as an opportunity for Malaysian producers, but the latter may not have sufficient labour resources to meet demand. Prof Teng argued that ASEAN should also increase its food reserves beyond the ASEAN Plus Three Economic Rice Reserve (APTERR). ASEAN countries contribute relatively little to the APTERR, which may be a concern given that the types of rice contributed by China, Japan and Korea may not be to ASEAN consumers’ preference. Currently, it does not have equivalent reserves for other crops.

Ms Donnellon-May concluded that developing countries in the region that rely heavily on Ukraine and Russia may have to compete with richer countries for food from alternative exporters, worsening food insecurity. While this can be an opportunity for alternative exporters, the latter must also tackle rising energy and fertiliser costs and climate change impacts.

During the Q&A session, the panellists addressed questions relating to private sector investments in agri-technology, potential of aquaculture, the role of international institutions and intersections with climate change. The seminar was attended by around 100 participants online and in-person.

The hybrid seminar was well-attended. (Credit: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute)

For a copy of the presentation slides, please contact climatechange@iseas.edu.sg