In the second of a three-part series on the 2020 US Presidential Election, Dr Evan Laksmana from Indonesia and Dr Pham Cao Cuong from Vietnam shared their initial impressions of the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election, its likely impact on US foreign policy towards Asia and Southeast Asia, and the responses of their respective countries to expected changes and continuities in US foreign policy.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES PROGRAMME WEBINAR
Monday, 16 November 2020 – The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, with the support of Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, organised a webinar on “The 2020 US Election Results and Asia: Views from Indonesia and Vietnam” on Monday, delivered by Dr Evan Laksmana and Dr Pham Cao Cuong. Dr Laksmana is a senior researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, while Dr Cuong is a senior researcher and vice president of the Vietnam Institute of Americas Studies (VIAS), Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, in Hanoi. This was the second of a three-part webinar series exploring regional responses to the 2020 US Presidential Election.
Dr Laksmana observed that there is still much uncertainty over the direction of President-elect Biden’s foreign policy towards Asia – Biden’s foreign policy team has yet to be named, and much will also depend on how the relationship between the state and defence departments as well as the National Security Council will be structured under his administration. It is also still unclear to what extent domestic issues will take priority in the new administration, specifically managing the pandemic and the country’s economic recovery. Dr Laksmana noted that it is unlikely that concrete policies and strategies will take form until six months to a year after Biden assumes office.
With regard to Indonesia, Dr Laksmana argued that Indonesia has largely abandoned the spirit of its strategic partnership agreement with the US, which was signed during Obama’s last year in office. Dr Laksmana noted that US-Indonesia relations have largely been transactional in nature since Trump took office, particularly with regard to trade and security, rather than focused on building a long-term relationship. While it is hoped that the spirit of the US-Indonesia strategic partnership agreement will be restored under Biden, this will also require some initiative from Indonesia’s President Jokowi, who has not displayed much enthusiasm for a revitalised engagement with the US.
Dr Cuong, meanwhile, pointed out that Democrat presidents, such as Obama and Clinton, have traditionally pursued robust foreign policies towards Asia and specifically Southeast Asia, with Biden likely to follow suit. With regard to Vietnam, Dr Cuong noted that Vietnam has embraced Trump’s FOIPS and that US-Vietnam trade and defence relations have also developed robustly over the last four years. The benefits of promoting the continued development of US-Vietnam relations will likely be recognised by both sides after Biden takes office.
The most important task for Vietnam during the Biden administration, Dr Cuong noted, would be to balance its relationships with China and the US. China is Vietnam’s biggest investor, while Vietnam is the biggest ASEAN exporter to the US. Dr Cuong pointed out that Vietnam abides by a multilateral-focused foreign policy, as well as its desire to strengthen relations with middle powers such as India, Australia, and the EU.
The webinar concluded with a virtual Q&A session that covered issues ranging from Biden’s proposed Summit of Democracies, the US’s role in the South China Sea dispute, ASEAN’s centrality, as well as prospects for an upgrade in US-Vietnam relations.
