In this webinar, Ambassador Sihasak Phuangketkeow looked at Thailand’s role, posture, and interests resulting from the Myanmar military’s seizure of power on 1 February 2021.
MYANMAR AND THAILAND STUDIES PROGRAMMES
Wednesday, 27 October 2021 – Ambassador Sihasak opened the webinar by commenting on Thai thinking toward the Myanmar crisis and on the relevance of the “ASEAN Way” to this crisis. Stressing that he was no longer in government, and that the views expressed were his own, he began with three important points. First, the crisis is a matter of transformative change; there is no turning back the clock on the process of democratization in Myanmar. Second, the crisis represents a challenge to ASEAN centrality and to the Association’s credibility; there is a clear need to rethink the ASEAN Way. Third, for Myanmar’s close neighbour Thailand, the current situation poses a real dilemma. Thailand bears the burden of proximity, and its approach to the Myanmar crisis thus needs to be a balanced one.
To date, Ambassador Sihasak noted, Thailand has been cautious in its approach to the Myanmar crisis. But it does care, and it wants to contribute to resolution of the crisis. In his remarks to the ongoing ASEAN Summit, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha said that the crisis is a test for ASEAN. The pathway to peace and stability in Myanmar clearly goes through inclusive dialogue, leading to early elections. ASEAN must play a role in this process, and it is necessary to support the Association’s Special Envoy. Prime Minister Prayut also said that Thailand was ready to help with humanitarian assistance. The hope is to see Myanmar regain its place in the ASEAN family.
Ambassador Sihasak’s own thinking is that, with so much at stake as a front-line state, Thailand needs to step up to the plate a bit more in working for peace and stability in Myanmar. It must support ASEAN more effectively, and be more actively engaged on its own in offering such support. During the Cambodian crisis of the 1980s, Thailand took a leading role, Ambassador Sihasak said, and others deferred to it. The situation today is not the same, but Thailand is again a front-line state. It needs to think about Myanmar’s interests, and of the interests of the Myanmar people. At the same time, large migration flows and drug and human trafficking across the Thai-Myanmar border are not good for Thailand.
As regards military-military dimensions of the relationship between Thailand and Myanmar, relations were not always good. There was mistrust in Myanmar of Thailand’s contact with ethnic nationality groups in Myanmar. But before the crisis the Thai military was happy to have a new and different kind of relationship with the Myanmar military. Thailand had helped to facilitate the ceasefire. The focus of the Thai military has always been on the security of the border. Its approach is more tactical than strategic. It wants to keep fighting away from the border and to reduce the chances that there will be large flows of displaced persons, though it will accept the entry of the latter into Thailand if they arrive.
While the crisis in Myanmar is a matter for the Myanmar people and for ASEAN, Ambassador Sihasak observed that Thailand nevertheless needs to have a coherent strategy for what it can do to help resolve that crisis. Bangkok has enjoyed good contacts with the National League for Democracy, and it is very likely to have good contacts with the National Unity Government, too. Thailand must use these lines of communication to help the parties in Myanmar enter into dialogue. It also needs to support ASEAN’s efforts. The Special Envoy has an important role to play, but one can only expect so much from an individual. Thailand originally proposed the idea of a “friends of the chair” group as a support mechanism and aid to the transition to Cambodia’s chairmanship of ASEAN and to coordination with major powers. In any case, Thailand can do more to support ASEAN efforts and do more on its own, too.
The decision to exclude the leadership of Myanmar’s State Administration Council from the summit was a difficult one, but it was correct, Ambassador Sihasak noted. He concluded his prepared remarks by touching on three important bilateral issues in Thai-Myanmar relations. First, Thailand now sees migrant workers from Myanmar as an important part of the Thai economy. Second, Thailand would like—not least in this time of pandemic—to provide humanitarian assistance to the Myanmar people, but the political context is still difficult and there is a need to work around the sensitivities involved. Prime Minister Prayut has said that the country needs to facilitate the delivery of assistance across the border, but working out the details of such facilitation in a conflict situation is tough. Third, there are roughly 200 Thai firms, big and small, with operations in Myanmar. They are there for the long term, and trying now to take care of their employees and of the communities in which they operate. They have also scaled back some activities in the wake of the coup, and will suspend new investment for now.
In response to questions from participants in the webinar, Ambassador Sihasak made a range of additional points. He noted that, in assuming the ASEAN chairmanship and addressing the Myanmar crisis, Cambodia would not be starting from scratch and he expected that it would be an active chair. In the meantime, and working bilaterally, it is important that Thailand keep lines of communication open and gain the trust of all parties in Myanmar. Using these channels, Thailand must pull its weight in addressing the crisis. Silence could be interpreted as empathy with the State Administration Council regime, and Thailand could be less silent about some matters. The Bangkok government does not support what has happened.
Thailand’s position is to welcome and to provide temporary refuge to persons fleeing violence in Myanmar until the situation permits their return. But the country needs to be careful in playing host to organizations involved in political advocacy, as this could undermine trust with its neighbours. At the same time, organizations involved in humanitarian work should arouse no such sensitivities.
Thailand, Ambassador Sihasak added, has not had a coherent strategy on the Myanmar crisis yet. In principle, such a strategy should emerge from the country’s National Security Council. But the government has been focused on the pandemic, the resultant economic crisis, and approaches to reopening the country. There ought to be a discussion of the long-term Thai strategy, taking the full range of relevant factors into account, soon.
All parties, including the State Administration Council, must be part of the solution to the crisis in Myanmar. Ambassador Sihasak noted that the Thai approach has been to work through the State Administration Council and then to engage with other stakeholders in Myanmar. But this approach has yielded little result, and perhaps Thai policy should be to engage with other parties, including the National Unity Government, as a first step toward helping to resolve the crisis. This is not an abstract problem for Thailand. The country must keep day-to-day lines of communication open. Even if it is not so vocal, it can still be more active. ASEAN does not have real unity or the ability to speak with a single voice. But Thailand can help forge that unity. Its engagement with the crisis will be ongoing, and, even though it shares a long border with Myanmar and is thus uniquely affected by developments in the country, Thailand should not say silent when things that are going on are not right. ASEAN principles are at stake, too, and other countries look, Ambassador Sihasak said, to Thailand as a front-line state.
ASEAN defended Myanmar for a long time, but it cannot do so at all costs. The Association has many other issues on its plate, Ambassador Sihasak reminded listeners. And, before ASEAN can help Myanmar, Myanmar must help itself.
As regards sanctions, Ambassador Sihasak responded to a participant’s question by saying that they must be carefully targeted and go hand-in-hand with diplomacy as part of a well-coordinated diplomatic strategy with ASEAN at its centre. All powers should work with ASEAN to address the crisis in Myanmar, instead of going it alone.
