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2022/53 “Uncertainties in Malaysia’s Economic Recovery” by Cassey Lee

A woman carries an infant upon arrival from Jakarta after landing at Kuala Lumpur International Airport 2 (KLIA 2), as Malaysia reopened its borders for travellers fully vaccinated against the Covid-19 coronavirus, in Sepang on 1 April 2022. Photo: Mohd RASFAN/AFP.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The prospects for a more robust economic recovery in Malaysia are being clouded by a number of uncertainties. Bank Negara Malaysia’s minor downward adjustment of a mere 0.2% of Malaysia’s economic growth forecast to 5.3-6.3% seems somewhat optimistic in the light of recent developments.
  • The shift to the endemic phase of Covid-19 will undoubtedly increase domestic economic activities, but the economic gains from the easing of restrictions on mobility of people and goods may be lower than expected.
  • The war in Ukraine and the de-coupling of Russia from major economies are expected to cause disruptions which in turn are likely to slow down the global economy and generate inflationary shocks.
  • Malaysia’s growth will probably be adversely affected by the external conditions, despite the higher market prices for some of its exports, such as crude oil and palm oil.
  • Inflation is already creeping upwards, especially in food prices. Such inflationary pressures are likely to be aggravated if the Ringgit weakens further due to higher interest rates in the United States.
  • If inflation in Malaysia worsens, policymakers may have to tighten monetary policy further, combined with additional fiscal stimuli funded by debt and petroleum royalties.

*Cassey Lee is Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. The author thanks Francis Hutchinson, Lee Hwok Aun, Tham Siew Yean, Siwage Dharma Negara, Serina Abdul Rahman, Quah Boon Huat and Marc Foo for their useful comments and suggestions. The usual caveat applies.

ISEAS Perspective 2022/53, 19 May 2022

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INTRODUCTION

In October last year, official forecasts projected the Malaysian economy to grow by 5.5 to 6.5 percent in 2022.[1] More recently, Bank Negara Malaysia has downgraded its forecasts for the country’s economic growth in 2022 to 5.3 to 6.3 percent.[2] This minor adjustment of a mere 0.2 percent belies the uncertainties generated by recent events that cloud the prospects of the country’s continuing recovery in the coming months. These include the impact of the war in Ukraine, the ongoing un-coupling of the Russian economy from the global economy and inflationary pressures in developed economies.

Given these uncertainties, what are the prospects of recovery for the Malaysian economy in the coming months and beyond? A good place to start is an assessment of how far the Malaysian economy has recovered thus far.

THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY SO FAR

The Malaysian economy suffered a severe contraction of -5.6% in 2020. This was a consequence of the implementation of a series of control measures starting from the lockdown (Movement Control Order) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. As a result, the country’s real GDP plunged by 16 percent (quarter to quarter) in the second quarter of 2020 (Figure 1). Subsequent relaxation of control measures brought about a sharp economic recovery in the third quarter of 2020. Further relaxation of the control measures in 2021 generated a further though modest 3.1 percent recovery in 2021. As a whole, the economic recovery in 2021 was very uneven: the economy was still relatively weak in the second and third quarters of 2021, but showed a strong recovery in the fourth quarter.

At the time of writing, the Malaysian economy has not fully recovered. Before the pandemic, between 2016 and 2019, the economy grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0 percent per annum. Comparing the actual 2021 GDP with a counterfactual GDP derived by assuming a five percent CAGR growth rate, the “lost output” amounts to about 11.8 percent of the GDP (Figure 2). This figure is a measure of the economic cost of the pandemic for the past two years. The real GDP in 2021 is estimated to be 97.3 percent of the level attained in 2019. Thus, the level of economic activity at the end of 2021 is still slightly below the level achieved before the pandemic began.

Based on components of GDP by expenditures, the recovery in 2021 was driven primarily by private consumption (Figure 3). The external sector’s contribution was mixed given the sharp decline in export in Q3-2021, which was due to the lockdown from June 2021 to August 2021. This took place amidst a growing global demand for electrical and electronic goods in 2021. Investment recovered slightly in Q4-2021 but was below the historical average.

From a sectoral perspective, the services sector is the main component of the GDP. Examining trends in the sectoral components of GDP, the services sector only recovered in the second half of 2021 (Figure 4). The sector’s future trajectory remains uncertain as the sector already began plateauing in 2019 before the pandemic. The manufacturing sector also picked up in the second half of 2021.

More recent trends in economic recovery can be partially inferred from the mobility of the population. Population mobility for business-related activities increased since mid-2021 driven by gradual relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions especially in the last quarter of 2021 (Figure 5).[3] However, mobility associated with these activities declined slightly in January and February 2022.

Labour market conditions also provide some indication of the extent of recovery achieved so far. Before the pandemic, the unemployment rate was hovering around 3.3 percent (Figure 6), but increased to 5.1 percent in Q2-2020. By early 2022, this rate had declined and stabilised around 4.1-4.2 percent.[4]

In terms of the composition of the unemployed, workers in the 15-24 age group account for the largest share despite a slight decline in the past two years. The weakness in the labour market is also reflected in the sharp decline in wages experienced in 2020; median salaries and wages declined by 15 percent (Figure 7). This decline has been particularly steep for younger workers (20-29) and older workers (60-64). Workers with a lower level of education are also more severely affected (Figure 8). More recent data are not available. However, given that the unemployment rate only declined slightly from late 2021 to early 2022, median salaries and wages are unlikely to have fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. This can also be seen in the job creation figures which only increased in the last quarter of 2021 (Figure 9). The level of job creation is still about one-third below levels observed before the pandemic. Also, though job creation in the manufacturing sector has rebounded, the services sector remains a laggard.

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE HORIZON

Surveys conducted in early 2022 are optimistic about Malaysia’s growth prospects in 2022. The Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) published by the Department of Statistics in late February 2022 showed that economic activities were expected to increase in the first quarter of 2022 (Figure 10).[5] Whilst the floods in January and March 2022 are likely to have short-term impact on growth in this quarter, they are not likely to have large impact for the rest of the year.[6] In contrast, two factors will determine the trajectory of the economy in the coming months. The transition to the Covid-19 endemic phase, which began on the first of April 2022, is expected to boost domestic sources of growth. However, the growth induced by the Covid-19 endemic phase may be neutralised by adverse and inter-related developments abroad, such as the war in Ukraine and inflationary pressures in developed economies.

Covid-19 Endemic Phase

Malaysia is currently undergoing its fifth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The number of daily new Covid-19 cases in this current wave is higher than during previous waves (Figure 11). However, the number of daily new Covid-19 deaths has remained relatively low (compared to the number of new cases). This is likely to be due to the high vaccination rate in the country. About 79 percent of the country’s population have been vaccinated with two doses.[7] This has prompted the Malaysian government to relax the control measures further. The country officially entered the Covid-19 endemic phase starting 1 April 2022.

How much will the economy be boosted by the implementation of the endemic phase? In theory, an increase in population mobility for retail activities is likely to increase private consumption. Though the endemic phase will impact domestic economic activity positively, the size of this impact is difficult to ascertain in any precise manner. For starters, the mobility indicators for economic activities such as retail and work have been increasing since June 2021 (Figure 12). It already peaked in late December 2021, before declining slightly – mostly likely due to the floods and seasonal effects. Hence, the domestic economic gains from transitioning to the Covid-19 endemic phase may be smaller than expected.

However, there is one potential silver lining – the move to the Covid-19 endemic phase may be able to support the revival of Malaysia’s tourism industry. In 2019, the sector supported about 3.5 million workers, or 23 percent of total workers in Malaysia.[8] The pandemic has had a severe impact on the sector, with tourist arrivals and tourism receipts both plunging by more than 80 percent in 2020 following border closures (Figure 13).

While the revival of the tourism sector is likely to take a long time, it might be possible to achieve faster gains in some markets, such as tourists from Singapore. Before the pandemic, Singapore accounted for the most significant number and share of inbound tourist arrivals (Figure 14). The reopening of the land borders between Singapore and Malaysia for fully vaccinated travellers on 1 April 2022 is expected to provide a near-term boost to the recovery of the tourism sector.

War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia have created some uncertainties. There are several dimensions to these uncertainties, which are all still evolving. The war and the de-coupling of the Russian economy continue to worsen the supply shocks in various commodities markets such as crude oil, natural gas, wheat, and sunflower oil. Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of these commodities, with a combined global export share of 69 percent for sunflower oil, 25 percent for wheat, 18 percent for barley, and 14 percent for corn.[9] Russia is a major exporter of fertilizers (13.1 percent), crude petroleum (12.5 percent global trade share), and refined petroleum (9.62 percent).[10] Expectations of supply shocks – either through reductions induced by war destruction or trade sanctions on Russia, have driven up the prices of food commodities (Figure 15). Food prices had already been trending upwards since mid-2020 due to drought and recovery in demand, but the more recent price increases are driven mainly by supply shocks. In mid-May 2022, India’s decision to ban wheat exports has exacerbated food prices further. Oil price has also been increasing since April 2020. The war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, increased the level and volatility of oil prices (Figure 16).

The annual CPI values showed that Malaysia transitioned from a deflationary (-1.2 percent) economy in 2020 to an inflationary one (+2.5 percent) in 2021. Looking at the price changes in the CPI components, the inflation in 2021 was driven by sharp increases in transport and food costs (Figure 17). The increase in transport costs would have been higher without fuel subsidies (for RON95 petrol and diesel). This can be seen from the increasing gap between the prices for these fuel products and the price of RON97 petrol (which is not subsidised) (Figure 15). With the relatively high weightage of the transport and food costs in the CPI, the inflation rate is likely to be higher in Malaysia in 2022. Recent inflation data suggest that inflation has remained moderate on the whole but food prices have risen significantly. Comparing 2022 to 2021, the price of food has risen by 3.6 percent in January 2022, 3.7 percent in February 2022 and 4 percent in March 2022 (Table 1).

On the production side, the price shocks in the commodities market could benefit producers and exporters of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and edible oils (e.g. palm oil). The rise in the price of oil and gas will positively impact the value of Malaysia’s exports of crude oil, LNG and palm oil. However, in the case of crude oil, the net benefit from higher prices might be smaller than expected, seeing how the country’s net exports for crude oil has declined in recent years (Figure 19).

Expectations of shortages of edible oil have also driven up the demand for and prices of palm oil. The current settlement price for palm oil futures rose by 42.9 percent between 3 February 2022 and 1 March 2022.[11] Prices have since declined slightly but remain 25-30 percent higher than before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Palm oil prices are expected to remain high until the third quarter of 2022.[12]

The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia are also expected to increase the risk of a slowdown in global economic growth. In April 2022, the IMF revised downward its growth projection for the world economy in 2022, from 4.4 percent to 3.6 percent.[13] As an open economy, Malaysia’s growth prospects will also be adversely affected by a global economic slowdown. This effect is an indirect one through weakening demand by its major trading partners (such as China, the US, and the EU).

Malaysia’s direct exposure to Ukraine and Russia in terms of trade is relatively small. Ukraine and Russia account for only 0.05 percent and 0.31 percent of the country’s total exports in 2020, respectively.[14] Ukraine and Russia’s shares of Malaysia’s total imports in 2020 are 0.12 percent and 0.41 percent, respectively. However, about 25 percent of Malaysia’s wheat imports is from Ukraine.[15] Thus, the war likely to affect Malaysia’s wheat imports in terms of both quantity and price.

Another global development that will impact Malaysia is the Federal Reserve’s response to inflationary shocks in the US. The current inflation rate in the US is close to double the earlier forecast for 2022. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point in March 2022, and further hikes in interest rate are expected in the coming months. Aside from slowing down the US economy, further increases in US interest rates will likely to trigger short-term capital outflows from Malaysia, which will weaken the Ringgit. The Ringgit has depreciated by about four percent from Mid-March to late April. Though this will make Malaysia’s exports more competitive, such an effect might be dampened by a more sluggish global economy. One downside of a weaker ringgit will be higher import costs which can exacerbate inflationary pressures in Malaysia.

ECONOMIC STABILIZATION CHALLENGES AHEAD

With external headwinds on the horizon, the growth prospects of the Malaysian economy will also depend on what policymakers can do. Malaysian policymakers will face several challenges in stabilizing the country’s economy. At present, there are still significant uncertainties about the trajectory of global economic growth and inflation. The global economic slowdown and inflationary pressures are imminent, but their quantum and duration are unknown. Irrespective of these uncertainties, the global economic slowdown, and inflation shocks will undoubtedly impact the Malaysian economy in the coming months.

In terms of policy responses, the near-term goals of economic stabilization should continue to focus on supporting domestic demand and, at the same time, neutralising the effects of imported inflation (driven by higher fuel prices and weaker exchange rates). These will be challenging times for monetary policy. If inflation becomes a severe problem in the coming months, a gradual upward adjustment in the interest rate might be needed. This process has begun with Bank Negara decision to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) from 1.75 percent to 2 percent on 11 May 2022.

Fiscal stimulus might be required to mitigate the effects of this rate hike and support economic growth. The fuel subsidy is a double-edged sword – it helps keep down the cost of fuel for consumers but also saps the government’s fiscal resources. Government fuel subsidies are expected to increase from RM11 billion in 2021 to RM28 billion in 2022 if oil prices remain above USD$100 per barrel.[16] This will shrink the country’s fiscal space further. The Federal government’s debt-GDP ratio was reported to be at 63.3 percent in June 2021 against the 65 percent threshold set by the parliament.[17]

Thus, unless the limit for the debt-GDP ratio is raised further, the fiscal resources from additional borrowings could also be limited, especially if the economic recovery is lacklustre. One temporary fix is the drawing of royalties from Petronas, which is made feasible by higher prices of oil exports. Tax reforms could be another medium-term policy option but this is unlikely to take place soon, given the imminence of a general election.

CONCLUSION

Malaysia’s prospects for a more robust economic recovery in 2022 have been clouded by a number of uncertainties. The transition to the Covid-19 endemic phase will undoubtedly increase domestic economic activities; however, the economic gains from greater mobility might be lower than expected. A weak labour market and sluggish domestic consumption could affect the country’s growth prospects.

A slowdown in the global economy and inflationary shocks will adversely impact the country’s growth despite the higher market prices for some of the country’s exports. Inflationary shocks could be worsened by a weakening Ringgit if the Federal Reserve raises its interest rates further to battle domestic inflation in the US. If inflation in Malaysia worsens, policymakers may have to implement a more restrictive monetary policy combined with fiscal stimulus funded by debt and petroleum royalties.

ENDNOTES


[1] Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysias-economy-grow-65-2022-%E2%80%94-bnm, accessed 9/3/2022.

[2] Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bnm-sees-2022-gdp-growth-53-63-shade-below-official-projection, accessed 21/4/2022.

[3] The monthly mobility index is constructed by summing up the daily change in mobility.

[4] Labour Force Report, February 2022.

[5] The rise in business confidence is also mirrored in MIER’s Business Confidence Index (up to Q4-2021): https://www.mier.org.my/post/business-conditions-index-4th-quarter-2021, Accessed 8/3/2022.

[6] Severe and intermittent floods since mid-December 2021 have caused severe damages. Official estimates of the economic damages caused by floods from December 2021 to January 2022 stood at RM6.1 billion (0.4 percent of the 2021 GDP). Significant material losses were incurred in public assets and infrastructure (RM2 billion), living quarters (RM1.6 billion), and vehicles (RM1 billion). The estimated loss in sales for the manufacturing sector was estimated to be RM891 million or 0.06% of the total sales of the sector in 2021. See Laporan Khas Impak Banjir di Malaysia 2021, Department of Statistics, Malaysia. The study was conducted between 30 December 2021 and 27 January 2022.

[7] Source: https://covidnow.moh.gov.my/, Accessed 11/3/2022.

[8] Sources: Tourism Satellite Account 2020, Department of Statistics Malaysia.

[9] 2019 figures, Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity at: https://oec.world/en/home-a, Accessed 13/3/2022.

[10] 2019 figures, Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity at: https://oec.world/en/home-a, Accessed 13/3/2022.

[11] Author’s computation based on data from CEIC.

[12] Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/palm-oil-prices-set-new-record-highs-coming-months-analyst-fry-2022-03-09/, Accessed 15/3/2022.

[13] Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022, Accessed 27/4/2022.

[14] Source: Final Trade Statistics 2020, Department of Statistics, Malaysia.

[15] Author’s calculation based on Comtrade data for year 2020.

[16] Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Malaysia-oil-subsidies-could-more-than-double-in-2022-finance-chief, Accessed 27/4/2022.

[17] Economic Outlook 2022, Ministry of Finance, Government of Malaysia.

ISEAS Perspective is published electronically by: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute   30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 Main Tel: (65) 6778 0955 Main Fax: (65) 6778 1735   Get Involved with ISEAS. Please click here: /support/get-involved-with-iseas/ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute accepts no responsibility for facts presented and views expressed.   Responsibility rests exclusively with the individual author or authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission.   © Copyright is held by the author or authors of each article.Editorial Chairman: Choi Shing Kwok   Editorial Advisor: Tan Chin Tiong   Editorial Committee: Terence Chong, Cassey Lee, Norshahril Saat, and Hoang Thi Ha.   Managing Editor: Ooi Kee Beng   Editors: William Choong, Lee Poh Onn, Lee Sue-Ann, and Ng Kah Meng   Comments are welcome and may be sent to the author(s).

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