About the Seminar
The Indonesian electorate is generally divided by ethnicity, religion, class, and region. These social divisions may play a role in shaping the patterns of their voting behavior. As the presidential election approaches, voters could possibly develop bloc voting, where groups of voters – united by common interest – allot their votes for particular candidates. Among these divisive groupings, which one will be the crucial factor in determining the frontrunner?
Survey data collected by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Indonesian Survey Institute, LSI) reveals various interesting findings. While voting patterns according to class and regions can clearly be seen, whether voters also follow their religion in voting remains unclear. The two surveys conducted in two different periods of time (June 2013 and May 2014) also reveal another interesting finding: the swinging dynamics amongst voting blocs. One year ago, a greater number of the middle class supported Mr Joko Widodo. But recent developments show that the majority of these voters have switched their support to Mr Prabowo Subianto. This has also happened among the lower class, but in the opposite direction. Furthermore, a greater proportion of those who reside in outer Java now choose Mr Prabowo Subianto rather than Mr Joko Widodo. This seminar aims to elaborate on these latest voting trends and provide insights on how all these may influence the outcome of the presidential election on 9 July 2014.